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PAP 2007
Publication Date: July 10, 2007
Well, I thought I had something, but I was wrong. I'll give you the results anyway, just for giggles. My gut feeling was that over the years, the message was getting through at the top levels of the game about monitoring pitch counts and that most of the abuse these days was at the lower end of the quality scale. That's an easy conclusion to come to when you're going by gut feelings, because looking at the overused list for any given week is going to mostly show you outings by Lower Northeastern Tech or whoever. It turns out, though, that that's just because there are a lot more LNIT's than there are Enormous State University's out there, and the LNIT's are reporting their box scores a lot better than they were five years ago.
This feeling was reinforced by the reduction of long starts in the CWS. Although I did miss one this year -- it turned out that Wes Roemer went 123 pitches -- the number of 140-150 pitch monsters is considerably down from the '90's.
However, if it were true that the PAP mountain was shifting to the lower end of the scale, you'd expect for their to be an increasing negative correlation between PAP scores and ISR's, as the worse teams racked up a larger percentage of the workload. It turns out, though, that the correlation, while mildly negative overall, is weak and not really increasing, as far as I can tell:
2002 0.09 2003 -0.12 2004 -0.09 2005 -0.01 2006 -0.14 2007 -0.10
At first I was discouraged by that, but it turns out that there is a positive takeaway from that, one that's even more positive than I had thought -- things are getting better top to bottom. That's good, because, although it's easy to get more worked up from a baseball perspective about the pro prospects playing for the top programs, insurance agents need rotator cuffs, too, and having reasonable usage patterns up and down the board is in everyone's interest. The average team PAP score in Division I for each year I have records for:
2002 220058 2003 196079 2004 194433 2005 131791 2006 135498 2007 115465
Now, on to the report. For those of you who got here since this time last year, go read at least part of this. This report is an annual part of a long-term research project where I'm tracking pitcher usage numbers for, essentially, every Division I starter along with minor league statistics over an extended period in order to check for correlations between high workload and future injury or ineffectiveness rates. There are, unavoidably, a ton of numbers here, but they matter, so let's slog on through.
The Hall of Shame
For starters, here are the worst single-game starts from NCAA pitchers last year, with the actual pitch count entries listed first and the estimated counts listed after:
Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO NP Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 8.2 13 7 6 5 9 174 Villanova Mike Loree 9.0 9 2 2 5 6 160 New York Tech Joe Esposito 8.2 6 4 4 5 6 160 New York Tech Joe Esposito 8.2 9 3 1 5 6 160 Coppin State Harry Williams 7.2 13 12 11 7 1 158 Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 8.1 9 1 1 5 8 158 Northwestern Ryan Myers 9.0 6 3 3 5 11 156 New Mexico Robert Lafromboise 9.0 6 0 0 5 6 156 Florida A&M Cirilo Manego 8.0 6 3 3 6 8 154 Florida Atlantic Chris Salberg 9.0 6 2 2 2 13 152 Portland David Gruener 9.0 12 3 3 1 8 152 Mississippi Lance Lynn 9.0 7 2 2 1 10 151 Oral Roberts Chance Chapman 9.0 3 1 1 4 19 150 Team Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO NP LeMoyne Owen D. L Bell 6.0 17 22 13 13 4 199 IPFW Donnie Sixt 10.0 12 11 9 7 7 190 Manhattan Mike Gazzola 8.0 12 14 12 8 7 164 Concordia (AL) McGuire 7.0 15 14 11 8 3 162 Princeton Eric Walz 9.0 9 6 5 7 6 162 Jackson State Charles W Williams 7.0 13 16 14 8 5 160 Tennessee Tech Matt Smith 11.0 11 5 5 3 6 158 Vermont Bryan Rembisz 9.0 10 3 2 4 13 157 Alabama State Josh Froneberger 8.1 9 4 3 5 11 156 Tougaloo Mason L 8.0 19 14 13 5 1 156 Longwood Brian McCullough 9.2 10 5 4 4 9 155 Concordia (AL) Heard 8.0 12 13 9 3 6 155 NC Central James Jordan 8.1 14 9 7 4 5 155 Central Arkansas Matt Whitaker 8.1 10 6 6 4 13 154 Central Arkansas Jeremy Cloud 12.0 11 3 3 3 4 154 Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 7.2 16 11 8 2 10 152 Savannah State Marcus Cortes 9.0 10 6 2 4 11 150 Fordham Javier Martinez 10.0 5 3 2 8 3 150 Marshall Brian Chrisman 9.0 5 4 0 6 7 150 St. Peter's Chris Innis 10.0 14 7 7 2 9 150
As always, take the estimates with a grain of salt, both up or down.
Season Totals
Here are the 100 worst season totals. I'll include a link to the the full list at the bottom.
Team Pitcher G GE PAP V IV LeMoyne Owen D. L Bell 1 1 970299 1 1 Utah Valley State Marcus Moore 16 11 958720 5 7 IPFW Donnie Sixt 10 8 737800 1 1 New York Tech Joe Esposito 13 6 549709 3 7 Florida Atlantic Chris Salberg 25 7 364267 3 5 Florida A&M Cirilo Manego 15 8 356727 3 7 Gonzaga Clayton Mortensen 16 10 329888 4 6 Princeton Eric Walz 8 5 316664 2 2 Northern Iowa Aaron Jenkins 14 10 301536 5 7 Central Arkansas Matt Whitaker 18 10 296537 3 4 Savannah State Marcus Cortes 16 12 290134 2 5 Villanova Mike Loree 13 4 278366 1 4 Vanderbilt David Price 18 7 266879 2 8 Oral Roberts Chance Chapman 21 11 265337 2 3 Manhattan Mike Gazzola 5 4 262145 1 1 Vermont Bryan Rembisz 13 10 255770 1 3 Maryland-Eastern Shore Dustin Longchamps 19 11 246137 2 6 Alabama State Josh Froneberger 11 9 239101 1 3 Concordia (AL) McGuire 1 1 238328 1 1 Arizona Preston Guilmet 19 4 237611 2 9 Central Arkansas Jeremy Cloud 16 12 234108 2 4 New Mexico Robert Lafromboise 14 2 221048 2 2 Jackson State Charles W Williams 2 2 216000 1 1 St. Peter's Chris Innis 19 15 214768 2 3 Longwood Brian McCullough 16 15 214534 1 3 Fordham Javier Martinez 14 7 213794 2 2 Tennessee Tech Matt Smith 14 13 203843 1 1 Coppin State Harry Williams 10 5 201868 1 1 Old Dominion Dan Hudson 15 10 196888 1 6 Mississippi Lance Lynn 10 3 196641 1 4 UC Irvine Scott Gorgen 21 4 196137 3 5 Texas State Justin Fiske 19 8 193775 2 4 Lamar Allen Harrington 16 5 190866 1 5 Arizona State Josh Satow 20 12 186116 2 5 Northwestern Ryan Myers 14 5 185248 1 1 Portland David Gruener 14 5 180478 1 3 West Virginia Josh Whitlock 13 10 178198 2 3 Tougaloo Mason L 1 1 175616 1 1 UCLA Tyson Brummett 20 6 173321 1 6 College of Charleston Nick Chigges 16 3 170675 2 4 Concordia (AL) Heard 1 1 166375 1 1 North Carolina Central James Jordan 1 1 166375 1 1 UCLA Tim Murphy 19 5 162026 2 2 Alabama Tommy Hunter 26 6 159415 1 5 Florida Bryan Augenstein 16 0 158754 2 4 Akron Frank Turocy 14 5 157135 2 5 Old Dominion Anthony Shawler 15 10 156516 0 7 Mount St. Mary's Dustin Pease 22 14 155890 1 3 Eastern Michigan Jeff Fischer 14 11 142600 1 3 Savannah State Mark Sherrod 14 12 142513 1 3 Tennessee James Adkins 17 13 140240 2 6 Cal Poly Thomas Eager 18 6 139670 2 4 Wagner Joe Testa 14 3 136348 1 3 Mississippi Will Kline 15 6 135601 0 4 Elon Steven Hensley 17 4 135361 1 4 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Will Norman 16 11 134119 1 4 North Dakota State Jake Laber 15 4 132806 1 5 Alabama A&M Bernard McKinney 11 11 131587 2 4 Maryland-Eastern Shore Michael Roberts 18 9 131488 1 2 North Carolina A&T John Primus 18 12 130677 1 2 Fordham Cory Riordan 14 9 128751 1 6 Notre Dame David Phelps 14 3 128396 1 3 Maryland-Eastern Shore Jamar Cadejuste 11 10 128171 2 3 Marshall Brian Chrisman 11 8 126771 1 1 Temple Tom Dolan 14 11 118783 1 3 Prairie View A&M Matthew Chase 17 11 117017 1 2 Cleveland State Brandon Hewitt 15 8 116656 1 3 UC Davis Bryan Evans 15 3 112457 1 3 Monmouth Brad Brach 15 6 110770 1 2 East Tennessee State Caleb Glafenhein 26 8 110727 1 3 Tuskegee Reggie Hollins 1 1 110592 1 1 LeMoyne Bobby Blevins 15 15 110535 1 4 UC Riverside James Simmons 17 4 109741 1 4 Texas-Arlington Dillon Gee 16 2 107048 1 3 New Mexico State Brian Gausman 22 10 105058 1 1 Arizona State Brian Flores 24 13 105046 1 1 Stony Brook Tom Koehler 13 11 104987 1 4 Western Kentucky Matt Ridings 13 3 104518 1 3 Miles Smith-8 1 1 103823 1 1 Valparaiso Harvey Yergin 13 11 103285 1 1 Savannah State John Keene 15 11 101432 1 1 West Virginia Matt Yurish 11 7 101140 1 3 South Florida Danny Otero 18 10 100372 1 3 Cal State Fullerton Wes Roemer 20 4 100216 0 4 Pennsylvania Jim Birmingham 14 12 99026 1 3 Arkansas State T. J. Brewer 11 3 97806 1 2 East Tennessee State Brandon Langston 15 5 96431 1 3 Sacred Heart Chris Howard 14 8 93373 1 3 Texas-San Antonio Josh Ruffin 14 3 93348 1 3 Nebraska Johnny Dorn 16 4 93115 1 1 Hartford Weston Szymanski 14 14 92743 1 3 Arkansas-Little Rock Ashur Tolliver 19 16 92673 0 3 Northwestern Dan Schwartz 11 5 92233 1 2 Central Michigan Josh Collmenter 15 12 90137 0 4 Campbell Blake Herring 18 13 89081 1 2 Appalachian State Matt Andress 16 5 88417 2 2 Savannah State Patrick Ballew 18 14 87598 1 2 Alabama Bernard Robert 12 3 87225 1 1 Samford Chandler Tidwell 15 14 85809 1 1 Pittsburgh Robert Brant 15 7 85566 1 3 Legend: G -- games counted (appearance I have records for) GE -- games estimated PAP -- PAP score V -- category V starts (133+ pitches) IV -- category IV starts (121-132 pitches)
Team Listings
Here are the twenty highest staff PAP's I could find:
Team GC GE PAP V IV Utah Valley State 55 36 990302 5 7 IPFW 44 37 769145 1 3 Savannah State 54 42 678834 5 13 Central Arkansas 53 32 619664 6 10 New York Tech 52 26 557834 3 7 Maryland-Eastern Shore 55 36 536524 5 13 Florida A&M 52 24 527586 4 12 Old Dominion 58 41 424188 2 16 West Virginia 51 37 412808 4 10 Florida Atlantic 58 12 395899 3 5 Jackson State 56 54 395345 2 7 Fordham 57 35 391678 4 10 Gonzaga 56 33 386475 4 9 UCLA 61 19 380762 3 10 Alabama State 37 31 379780 2 7 Oral Roberts 53 25 378808 3 8 Mississippi 57 25 372984 1 10 Alabama 57 11 371565 2 12 Princeton 38 24 362372 2 4 Villanova 54 16 353355 1 8
In the interests of fairness to the coaching profession as a whole, here are a few PAP counts that I found admirable. It's not really a lowest list, since that would be too affected by the number of games I could find; it's just a few that I found impressive.
Team GC GE PAP V IV Lehigh 43 40 0 0 0 Georgia 51 28 91 0 0 Kent State 59 47 190 0 0 Canisius 54 46 998 0 0 Illinois State 41 29 1222 0 0 St. Joseph's 49 43 1555 0 0 Iowa 54 49 2187 0 0 Purdue 54 41 2750 0 0 Washington 56 45 3436 0 0 Utah 55 29 4898 0 0 Minnesota 59 29 5114 0 0 San Diego State 59 43 6040 0 0 Texas Southern 38 33 6068 0 0 Marist 52 34 6176 0 0 Oakland 43 30 6202 0 0 Gardner-Webb 48 31 6994 0 0 Furman 55 44 7321 0 0 Rice 70 63 7426 0 0 Clemson 64 52 7978 0 0 Georgia Tech 57 5 7985 0 0
Yes, that's right; Rice. Here's a tip of the hat to Wayne Graham and crew for changing gears while staying in front.
Comprehensive Lists
Finally, thorough lists for pitchers and teams:
The pitcher list has every pitcher that accumulated either 8 starts or 100,000 PAP; the team list has every team. Each list, of course, is subject to the limitations of the data that I have. Once again, on the comprehensive lists, I'm going to do something that's different from what I normally do, because I want it to be as accurate a record as possible when I come back to it in a few years -- I will update the records if I get data on additional starts.
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| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> PAP 2007 | About the author, Boyd Nation |