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Publication Date: November 5, 2002
Career Decisions at 18, Oh My!
One of the more popular features I started last year was to select two major league all-star teams, one made up of players who played college baseball and one of U. S.-born players who went directly to the minors. This leaves out foreign-born players and a few odd cases like Mike Piazza, but it models pretty well the choices that a lot of players have to make upon high school graduation, so I think it's an exercise worth repeating. With the fiasco in Milwaukee this summer (insert one of the 868 Bud Selig jokes you've read since then here, please) and the continued erosion of the wall between the AL and the NL, feel free to start pressuring MLB to move to this format; I'm sure we'll get far with the idea. See last year's column for details on roster construction -- I'm going to stick with the same format, although I have better information now on a few guys like Jeter and Pujols that renders them ineligible.
College Players
Player Position Team College 2002 OPS Barry Bonds OF Giants Arizona State 1.381 Lance Berkman OF Astros Rice 0.982 Pat Burrell OF Phillies Miami, Florida 0.920 Luis Gonzalez OF Diamondbacks South Alabama 0.896 Mark Kotsay OF Padres Cal State Fullerton 0.810 Eric Hinske 3B Blue Jays Arkansas 0.845 N. Garciaparra SS Red Sox Georgia Tech 0.880 David Eckstein SS/2B Angels Florida 0.752 Jeff Kent 2B Giants California 0.933 Jason Giambi 1B/DH Yankees Long Beach State 1.034 John Olerud 1B Mariners Washington State 0.893 Rafael Palmeiro 1B/DH Rangers Mississippi State 0.962 Paul Lo Duca C Dodgers Arizona State 0.731 Jason Varitek C Red Sox Georgia Tech 0.724 Pitcher Team College 2002 ERA Randy Johnson Diamondbacks Southern Cal 2.32 Barry Zito A's Southern Cal 2.75 Tim Hudson A's Auburn 2.98 Jarrod Washburn Angels Wisconsin-Oshkosh 3.15 Jamie Moyer Mariners St. Joseph's 3.32 Mark Mulder A's Michigan State 3.47 Randy Wolf Phillies Pepperdine 3.20 Paul Byrd Royals Louisiana State 3.90 Matt Morris Cardinals Seton Hall 3.42 Wade Miller Astros Alvernia 3.28 Kip Wells Pirates Baylor 3.58
Straight to the Minors
Player Position Team 2002 OPS Brian Giles OF Pirates 1.072 Jim Edmonds OF Cardinals 0.981 Shawn Green OF Dodgers 0.944 Cliff Floyd OF Marlins et al 0.920 Torii Hunter OF Twins 0.859 Chipper Jones 3B Braves 0.972 Alex Rodriguez SS Rangers 1.015 Ray Durham 2B White Sox 0.825 Alex S. Gonzalez SS Cubs 0.737 Ryan Klesko 1B Padres 0.925 Mike Sweeney 1B/DH Royals 0.979 Richie Sexson 1B/DH Brewers 0.867 Mike Lieberthal C Phillies 0.792 A. J. Pierzynski C Twins 0.773 Pitcher Team 2002 ERA Derek Lowe Red Sox 2.58 Roy Halladay Blue Jays 2.93 Greg Maddux Braves 2.62 Tom Glavine Braves 2.96 Kevin Millwood Braves 3.24 A. J. Burnett Marlins 3.30 Kenny Rogers Rangers 3.84 Matt Clement Cubs 3.60 Kerry Wood Cubs 3.66 Jason Schmidt Giants 3.45 Al Leiter Mets 3.48
So, Who Wins?
Through no intent at all, I picked an odd time in history to start this last year. If you look at the offenses this year, they're almost evenly matched (Thome being ineligible due to junior college time I had missed causes that; he gets replaced by Sexton, a major dropoff), with one huge exception. Last year, I was unsure if Bonds had the greatest offensive season in history. I had assumed that I had seen a historical oddity (and I had, of course) and that I might never see another season like it. And I'll be darned if he didn't have a better year this year. If you look at the various runs-above-replacement type measures, even in this lineup, Bonds is going to be worth at least 60 games over a season more than the rest of these guys, who are the best that the world has to offer; that translates to around 5 or 6 wins. Combining that with the fair-sized edge on the pitching side, and I think the college guys win again. It's a short streak, but it's better than losing.
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