Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Smart Stats for 2002, Part III: The Defense About the author, Boyd Nation

Smart Stats for 2002, Part III: The Defense

Publication Date: August 20, 2002

Defensive Efficiency

This week I want to end up a three-part series on smart stats by taking a look at defense. Defensive stats are, in many ways, the weakest leg of the hitting-pitching-defense tripod. Errors are far too subjective (and range-dependent) to be very useful, and that essentially takes out the most used historical stat, fielding percentage. There are a few modern stats which attempt to measure individual fielding, with zone rating and defensive average being the best-known of them; they're also viewed with some skepticism by knowledgeable analysts, although they're better than nothing. They also require far more data than is available for college ball.

There is, however, one measure which is seeming to be fairly useful at the team rather than player level. It was first suggested by Bill James in one of the old Statistical Abstracts and is called defensive efficiency. There are several versions floating about, but the basic idea is simple -- what percentage of balls in play (not strikeouts or home runs, essentially) are turned into outs? This is obviously park-dependent, but other than that it turns out to be remarkably robust otherwise.

The basic formula is just this:

                   H - HR
      DE = 1 - --------------
                AB - HR - SO

At the major league level, this works really well. The one area of concern I have about it at the college level is that official scoring tends to be much more inconsistent at the college level, so the omission of errors, which tends to even out at the pro level, does make a difference here. The problem with including errors is that not all errors lead to extra baserunners, so teams with aggressive outfielder, for example, can lose a bit. For this report, I'm going to show a ranking both with and without errors included and let you make your own judgments about the value. To my untrained eye, the version with the errors included looks a bit more reliable at this point. The version listed above is called EFF1 below; the version with the errors is EFF2.

The Extremes

   EFF1         EFF2    Team

  1  0.714    45  0.627 Marist
  2  0.711     1  0.669 Texas
  3  0.708    47  0.627 Duquesne
  4  0.705   148  0.596 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
  5  0.705    10  0.644 Houston
  6  0.703    32  0.631 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
  7  0.703    28  0.633 Monmouth
  8  0.703     2  0.663 North Carolina-Wilmington
  9  0.702     5  0.657 Nebraska
 10  0.701    17  0.638 East Carolina

Here we see the effect of the official scorer. The most extreme case here, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, had 117 errors in only 42 games. On the other hand, there's a reasonable chance that half of those might have been called hits elsewhere (I'm all in favor of tough scoring, in general; I'm just advocating for consistency here), and the #148 ranking looks much more likely to be accurate to me. And the other end:

263  0.611   262  0.539 Eastern Kentucky
264  0.610   270  0.500 LaSalle
265  0.610   254  0.551 Fairleigh Dickinson
266  0.607   242  0.557 Quinnipiac
267  0.603   256  0.550 New Mexico
268  0.601   271  0.490 Coppin State
269  0.598   265  0.528 St. Peter's
270  0.593   264  0.534 Canisius
271  0.587   267  0.519 Charleston Southern
272  0.580   269  0.506 Wagner

You'll notice from that last ranking that there were 14 teams I couldn't find data for, the bane of my existence.

The Full List

If you're going to skip to your team, and I know most of you will, be sure to read below the list; there are a couple of interesting things down there.

   EFF1         EFF2    Team

246  0.626   246  0.556 Air Force
253  0.623   214  0.571 Akron
 50  0.684    35  0.630 Alabama
 87  0.672   219  0.569 Alabama A&M
 26  0.689   129  0.600 Alabama State
234  0.632   235  0.561 Alabama-Birmingham
 57  0.682   121  0.602 Albany
116  0.664   203  0.575 Alcorn State
232  0.633   234  0.562 Appalachian State
118  0.664   100  0.607 Arizona
 97  0.669    67  0.617 Arizona State
 69  0.678    36  0.630 Arkansas
 78  0.676    73  0.616 Arkansas State
167  0.653   194  0.578 Arkansas-Little Rock
  4  0.705   148  0.596 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
 17  0.696    84  0.612 Army
 42  0.685    11  0.643 Auburn
 83  0.674    85  0.612 Austin Peay State
 74  0.677   120  0.602 Ball State
 95  0.669   104  0.606 Baylor
222  0.639   188  0.582 Belmont
102  0.668    88  0.611 Bethune-Cookman
 80  0.675    49  0.626 Binghamton
 13  0.698    44  0.627 Birmingham-Southern
172  0.652   224  0.567 Boston College
185  0.648   134  0.599 Bowling Green State
201  0.645   237  0.561 Bradley
215  0.641   193  0.579 Brigham Young
143  0.660   150  0.596 Brown
239  0.631   220  0.568 Bucknell
225  0.636   243  0.557 Buffalo
149  0.658   105  0.606 Butler
257  0.617   257  0.544 C. W. Post
 90  0.671    50  0.626 Cal Poly
 63  0.680    37  0.630 Cal State Fullerton
123  0.663   118  0.603 Cal State Northridge
196  0.646   174  0.588 Cal State Sacramento
 82  0.675    51  0.625 Cal-Irvine
178  0.650   151  0.596 Cal-Santa Barbara
 66  0.679    30  0.631 California
182  0.650   182  0.585 Campbell
270  0.593   264  0.534 Canisius
109  0.666   172  0.588 Centenary
 84  0.673   107  0.606 Central Connecticut State
 68  0.678    89  0.611 Central Florida
179  0.650   217  0.569 Central Michigan
271  0.587   267  0.519 Charleston Southern
241  0.629   206  0.574 Chicago State
 51  0.683    19  0.636 Cincinnati
 53  0.682    16  0.639 Clemson
 27  0.689   135  0.599 Cleveland State
 34  0.687    26  0.633 Coastal Carolina
207  0.642   202  0.575 College of Charleston
214  0.641   229  0.563 Columbia
205  0.643   183  0.584 Connecticut
268  0.601   271  0.490 Coppin State
211  0.642   179  0.585 Cornell
199  0.645   165  0.590 Creighton
 93  0.669    81  0.613 Dartmouth
252  0.624   253  0.552 Davidson
217  0.640   233  0.562 Dayton
171  0.652   141  0.598 Delaware
153  0.658   201  0.576 Delaware State
212  0.641   199  0.576 Detroit Mercy
183  0.649   175  0.587 Drexel
202  0.644   166  0.589 Duke
  3  0.708    47  0.627 Duquesne
 10  0.701    17  0.638 East Carolina
235  0.631   210  0.572 East Tennessee State
105  0.667   110  0.605 Eastern Illinois
263  0.611   262  0.539 Eastern Kentucky
236  0.631   221  0.568 Eastern Michigan
 35  0.686    41  0.629 Elon
138  0.661    70  0.616 Evansville
228  0.635   232  0.562 Fairfield
265  0.610   254  0.551 Fairleigh Dickinson
 14  0.698     9  0.646 Florida
157  0.657   112  0.605 Florida Atlantic
112  0.665   160  0.591 Florida International
 43  0.685    22  0.636 Florida State
120  0.663   153  0.596 Fordham
137  0.661    86  0.612 Fresno State
125  0.663   155  0.595 Furman
 58  0.682    59  0.622 George Mason
 24  0.691    25  0.634 George Washington
248  0.625   247  0.556 Georgetown
184  0.649   143  0.597 Georgia
151  0.658   127  0.600 Georgia Southern
 85  0.672    64  0.621 Georgia State
 39  0.686    33  0.631 Georgia Tech
227  0.636   171  0.588 Gonzaga
148  0.658   263  0.534 Grambling State
218  0.640   204  0.574 Hartford
174  0.651   195  0.578 Harvard
226  0.636   185  0.584 Hawaii
193  0.647   215  0.570 Hawaii-Hilo
238  0.631   207  0.574 High Point
181  0.650   222  0.568 Hofstra
 79  0.676   132  0.599 Holy Cross
  5  0.705    10  0.644 Houston
 25  0.689    15  0.639 Illinois
132  0.661   157  0.594 Illinois State
 64  0.680    93  0.610 Illinois-Chicago
 96  0.669    90  0.611 Indiana
 72  0.677    99  0.607 Indiana State
170  0.652   230  0.563 Iona
168  0.652   168  0.588 Iowa
229  0.635   260  0.540 Jackson State
 18  0.695    34  0.631 Jacksonville
200  0.645   208  0.573 Jacksonville State
 98  0.669    60  0.622 James Madison
108  0.667   187  0.583 Kansas State
144  0.660   103  0.606 Kent State
206  0.642   209  0.573 Kentucky
264  0.610   270  0.500 LaSalle
177  0.650   197  0.577 Lafayette
113  0.665    76  0.615 Lamar
 12  0.698   116  0.604 LeMoyne
 76  0.677    58  0.623 Lehigh
107  0.667    92  0.611 Liberty
 73  0.677    95  0.609 Lipscomb
 28  0.689    40  0.629 Long Beach State
242  0.627   261  0.540 Long Island
 89  0.672    72  0.616 Louisiana State
 47  0.684    79  0.614 Louisiana Tech
 48  0.684    48  0.627 Louisiana-Lafayette
165  0.653   140  0.598 Louisiana-Monroe
 30  0.688     7  0.646 Louisville
259  0.614   252  0.553 Loyola Marymount
 22  0.691    27  0.633 Maine
 59  0.681   102  0.607 Manhattan
  1  0.714    45  0.627 Marist
176  0.650   169  0.588 Marshall
224  0.637   240  0.560 Maryland
194  0.647   192  0.579 Maryland-Baltimore County
 49  0.684   142  0.598 Massachusetts
231  0.634   259  0.541 Mercer
 75  0.677    87  0.611 Miami, Florida
188  0.648   177  0.587 Miami, Ohio
198  0.645   212  0.571 Michigan
 94  0.669    69  0.617 Michigan State
208  0.642   196  0.577 Middle Tennessee State
150  0.658   137  0.598 Minnesota
 40  0.686    62  0.622 Mississippi
 65  0.680    42  0.629 Mississippi State
251  0.624   266  0.525 Mississippi Valley State
261  0.614   248  0.556 Missouri
  7  0.703    28  0.633 Monmouth
262  0.612   255  0.550 Morehead State
258  0.617   258  0.543 Mount St. Mary's
192  0.647   186  0.583 Murray State
 41  0.685   117  0.603 Navy
  9  0.702     5  0.657 Nebraska
213  0.641   191  0.580 Nevada
255  0.622   218  0.569 Nevada-Las Vegas
267  0.603   256  0.550 New Mexico
230  0.634   249  0.555 New Mexico State
 91  0.671    77  0.614 New Orleans
147  0.659   122  0.602 New York Tech
247  0.625   236  0.561 Niagara
219  0.639   162  0.591 Nicholls State
 44  0.684    21  0.636 North Carolina
140  0.660   250  0.554 North Carolina A&T
204  0.643   180  0.585 North Carolina State
166  0.653   154  0.596 North Carolina-Asheville
249  0.624   223  0.567 North Carolina-Charlotte
128  0.662   114  0.604 North Carolina-Greensboro
  8  0.703     2  0.663 North Carolina-Wilmington
 33  0.687    31  0.631 Northeastern
 37  0.686    97  0.609 Northern Illinois
136  0.661   108  0.606 Northern Iowa
141  0.660   161  0.591 Northwestern
 60  0.681    12  0.642 Northwestern State
 38  0.686    46  0.627 Notre Dame
233  0.633   251  0.554 Oakland
245  0.626   216  0.570 Ohio
122  0.663    83  0.612 Ohio State
160  0.656   144  0.597 Oklahoma
133  0.661   106  0.606 Oklahoma State
129  0.661   272  0.295 Old Dominion
 81  0.675    56  0.623 Oral Roberts
 32  0.688    20  0.636 Oregon State
191  0.647   158  0.592 Pacific
154  0.658   145  0.597 Penn State
216  0.640   227  0.565 Pennsylvania
190  0.647   136  0.599 Pepperdine
159  0.656   101  0.607 Portland
254  0.622   268  0.509 Prairie View A&M
 77  0.676   152  0.596 Princeton
 29  0.689    13  0.642 Purdue
266  0.607   242  0.557 Quinnipiac
187  0.648   184  0.584 Radford
 56  0.682   159  0.592 Rhode Island
 20  0.693     6  0.649 Rice
 21  0.693    43  0.628 Richmond
103  0.668   205  0.574 Rider
 45  0.684    24  0.635 Rutgers
126  0.662   124  0.601 Sacred Heart
106  0.667    91  0.611 Sam Houston State
158  0.656   156  0.594 Samford
131  0.661    96  0.609 San Diego
117  0.664    65  0.620 San Diego State
256  0.617   244  0.557 San Francisco
 15  0.697     3  0.659 San Jose State
175  0.650   163  0.591 Santa Clara
110  0.666   131  0.599 Seton Hall
115  0.665   176  0.587 Siena
104  0.668    54  0.624 South Alabama
 52  0.683     8  0.646 South Carolina
 88  0.672    68  0.617 South Florida
142  0.660   149  0.596 Southeast Missouri State
240  0.630   213  0.571 Southeastern Louisiana
 31  0.688   119  0.603 Southern
203  0.644   170  0.588 Southern California
169  0.652   138  0.598 Southern Illinois
 71  0.678    63  0.622 Southern Mississippi
210  0.642   190  0.581 Southern Utah
119  0.663   128  0.600 Southwest Missouri State
146  0.659   123  0.601 Southwest Texas State
100  0.668    75  0.615 St. Bonaventure
164  0.653   139  0.598 St. Francis
 19  0.694    53  0.624 St. John's
244  0.627   231  0.563 St. Joseph's
 92  0.670    29  0.632 St. Louis
189  0.648   125  0.600 St. Mary's
269  0.598   265  0.528 St. Peter's
 11  0.700     4  0.658 Stanford
209  0.642   147  0.597 Stetson
 67  0.679    61  0.622 Stony Brook
163  0.655   167  0.589 Temple
134  0.661   115  0.604 Tennessee
197  0.646   245  0.557 Tennessee-Martin
  2  0.711     1  0.669 Texas
 62  0.680    52  0.625 Texas A&M
156  0.657   164  0.590 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
 54  0.682    14  0.641 Texas Christian
 86  0.672   225  0.566 Texas Southern
 46  0.684    23  0.635 Texas Tech
152  0.658   111  0.605 Texas-Arlington
237  0.631   226  0.565 Texas-Pan American
130  0.661    82  0.613 Texas-San Antonio
260  0.614   238  0.561 Toledo
 70  0.678    57  0.623 Towson
139  0.661   130  0.599 Troy State
 99  0.669    74  0.616 Tulane
173  0.651   133  0.599 UC Riverside
155  0.657    98  0.608 UCLA
221  0.639   200  0.576 Utah
243  0.627   228  0.563 Valparaiso
135  0.661    80  0.613 Vanderbilt
121  0.663   198  0.577 Vermont
114  0.665    94  0.610 Villanova
162  0.655   178  0.587 Virginia
111  0.665    71  0.616 Virginia Commonwealth
220  0.639   241  0.560 Virginia Military
223  0.638   189  0.582 Virginia Tech
272  0.580   269  0.506 Wagner
 36  0.686    39  0.629 Wake Forest
127  0.662    78  0.614 Washington
145  0.660   146  0.597 Washington State
101  0.668   113  0.605 Western Carolina
 61  0.680    38  0.630 Western Kentucky
186  0.648   181  0.585 Western Michigan
 16  0.696    18  0.637 Wichita State
161  0.655   109  0.606 William and Mary
124  0.663   126  0.600 Winthrop
  6  0.703    32  0.631 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
195  0.647   173  0.588 Wofford
250  0.624   239  0.560 Wright State
 23  0.691    66  0.619 Xavier
 55  0.682    55  0.624 Yale
180  0.650   211  0.572 Youngstown State

Erratum: John Tetuan

In compiling the RBOA listings last time, I was limited just a little by available material, and it turned out that I made an incorrect assumption about one of the pitchers for whom I was missing four starts: John Tetuan of Wichita State should have made the RBOA list toward the bottom, probably at #23 if my back of the envelope correction, guided by the pointers of an observant reader, is right. My apologies.

A Really Cool Thing

Normally, everything here is of my own making; there's a certain freedom that comes from that limitation. However, a reader has shared something so cool with me that I just had to get it out to you. Trip von Minden has put together a season data set for Diamond Mind Baseball for 32 of the 2002 NCAA baseball teams and made it available for general play. Just follow the link there to download it.

Diamond Mind is generally regarded as the best baseball simulation on the market right now, and Trip has done an excellent job of mirroring the differences in schedule quality by using the builtin era adjustments. In short, he's put in quite a bit of work to allow you to have quite a bit of fun, and I'm grateful that he's agreed to let me pass it along to you.

If you're interested in reprinting this or any other Boyd's World material for your publication or Web site, please read the reprint policy and contact me

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Smart Stats for 2002, Part III: The Defense About the author, Boyd Nation