Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> How Much More Do You Need to Do? About the author, Boyd Nation

How Much More Do You Need to Do?

Publication Date: April 17, 2007

Opening disclaimer: This is an imperfect analysis of one factor of the tournament selection process. Meeting the criteria specified here is no guarantee of receiving a bid or a specific seed. My invitation to serve on the selection committee seems to have been lost in the mail; if I had received one, I wouldn't be pushing for RPI-based selection criteria during this century. Other factors such as conference placement and warm fuzziness need to be considered.

Earlier in the season, I took a look at what it would take to get into the RPI top 45 for each team if all of their scheduled opponents came out with the same winning percentage as last year. This time, I want to look at the rest of the season through that same lens with a bit more detail. What follows is a list of what it would take the rest of the way for each team that still has a chance of reaching the four major RPI thresholds -- top 8 (national seeds), top 16 (#1 seeds), top 32 (#2 seeds), and top 45 (at large cutoff) -- if everything else remained the same. In other words, if everybody else maintained exactly the same winning percentage (I know that's not technically possible, but work with me here), Alabama would have to go 13-5 the rest of the way to make it past the current #45 team. Notes follow at the end of the list, since some of the results are kind of surprising.

Team                      RPI    8     16     32     45

Alabama                    72  -----  -----  17-1   13-5 
Arizona                    22  18-0   14-4   11-7    7-11
Arizona State              17  15-2   10-7    7-10   3-14
Arkansas                    7  13-3    8-8    5-11   2-14
Auburn                     43  16-0   12-4    8-8    5-11
Baylor                     50  -----  15-2   12-5    8-9 
Cal Poly                   75  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
Cal State Fullerton        19  21-0   17-4   14-7   10-11
Central Florida            76  -----  -----  17-1   13-5 
Clemson                    28  17-3   13-7   10-10   6-14
Coastal Carolina           24  18-1   14-5   11-8    7-12
College of Charleston      15  -----  16-2   13-5    9-9 
Creighton                  54  -----  -----  -----  17-1 
Duke                       58  -----  -----  -----  14-1 
East Carolina              14  -----  14-3   11-6    7-10
Evansville                 48  -----  -----  14-2   11-5 
Florida                    36  -----  14-3   10-7    7-10
Florida Atlantic           62  -----  -----  -----  15-0 
Florida State              11  13-3    9-7    5-11   2-14
Georgia                   140  -----  -----  19-0   15-4 
Georgia Tech               53  -----  14-3   11-6    8-9 
Houston                    61  -----  -----  18-1   14-5 
Illinois State            101  -----  -----  -----  14-1 
Kansas State               32  -----  17-2   14-5   10-9 
Kentucky                   56  -----  -----  16-2   13-5 
Liberty                    85  -----  -----  -----  16-1 
Long Beach State            5  19-2   15-6   12-9    8-13
Louisiana State            39  17-0   13-4   10-7    6-11
Louisiana-Lafayette        12  18-0   13-5   10-8    6-12
Louisiana-Monroe           74  -----  -----  -----  16-0 
Louisville                 45  -----  19-0   16-3   13-6 
Maryland                  109  -----  -----  -----  15-1 
Memphis                    35  -----  18-0   15-3   11-7 
Miami, Florida             38  -----  14-2   11-5    7-9 
Michigan                   37  -----  -----  22-2   18-6 
Michigan State            114  -----  -----  -----  21-3 
Minnesota                  27  -----  -----  20-2   17-5 
Mississippi                16  12-5    8-9    5-12   1-16
Mississippi State           4  16-4   12-8    8-12   5-15
Missouri                   33  18-0   14-4   11-7    7-11
Missouri State            102  -----  -----  -----  17-2 
Nebraska                   29  18-0   14-4   11-7    8-10
New Orleans                83  -----  -----  -----  16-1 
North Carolina              9  13-4    9-8    5-12   2-15
North Carolina State       20  16-1   11-6    8-9    5-12
Ohio State                 82  -----  -----  -----  23-1 
Oklahoma                   18  17-0   13-4   10-7    6-11
Oklahoma State             60  -----  17-0   13-4   10-7 
Oregon State               26  -----  17-2   14-5   10-9 
Penn State                 93  -----  -----  -----  22-0 
Pepperdine                 21  -----  12-3    9-6    6-9 
Rice                        2  10-5    6-9    3-12   0-15
Rutgers                    80  -----  -----  -----  19-0 
San Diego                  23  -----  11-2    8-5    4-9 
South Alabama              90  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
South Carolina              1  11-7    7-11   4-14   0-18
South Florida              41  -----  15-2   12-5    8-9 
Southern California        47  -----  -----  16-2   12-6 
Southern Illinois          52  -----  -----  -----  16-2 
Southern Mississippi       31  -----  16-2   13-5    9-9 
St. John's                 77  -----  -----  -----  21-0 
Stanford                   73  -----  -----  -----  22-1 
Stetson                    30  -----  15-1   11-5    8-8 
Tennessee                  88  -----  -----  17-1   14-4 
Texas                       8   8-5    4-9    0-13   0-13
Texas A&M                   6  11-5    7-9    3-13   0-16
Texas Christian            55  -----  -----  -----  17-1 
Texas State                64  -----  -----  -----  17-0 
Texas Tech                 57  -----  -----  15-1   12-4 
Texas-San Antonio          59  -----  -----  -----  16-0 
The Citadel                65  -----  -----  -----  18-0 
Troy                       40  -----  -----  15-3   12-6 
Tulane                     44  -----  -----  -----  15-2 
UC Irvine                  25  -----  -----  17-2   13-6 
UC Riverside               67  -----  -----  -----  18-2 
UCLA                       51  -----  19-2   16-5   12-9 
Vanderbilt                  3  13-4    9-8    5-12   2-15
Virginia                   10  14-1   10-5    7-8    3-12
Virginia Tech              46  -----  -----  15-2   12-5 
Wake Forest                34  -----  16-0   12-4    9-7 
Washington                104  -----  -----  -----  21-0 
Washington State          119  -----  -----  -----  19-0 
Western Carolina           42  -----  -----  18-1   14-5 
Wichita State              13  22-0   17-5   13-9    9-13

While already-earned bonuses for big non-conference wins are included in the analysis, I didn't include any potential bonuses from this point forward. Because most of the remaining schedule is conference games, that's not a huge difference, but it might matter for a few teams, like Coastal Carolina's coming visit to Miami or Winthrop's visit to North Carolina. I also couldn't include the unknowns of the conference tournaments, of course, so this is regular season only.

There's no reason that I couldn't do this report automatically on a daily basis. Is there enough usefulness here to justify the small amount of effort it would take to set it up?

Tournament Watch

This means absolutely nothing, ignore it.

This is one generic layman's predictions for who gets in the tournament. I'm not going to bother picking a team from the one-bid conferences, since the conference tournament will just be a crapshoot, but if I only list one team from a conference, they'll get an at large bid if they don't get the automatic bid.

America East   Florida State         Michigan              Arizona State
A10            Clemson               Minnesota             UCLA
CAA            North Carolina State  Coastal Carolina      Arizona
Horizon        North Carolina        UC Irvine             South Carolina
Ivy            Virginia              UC Riverside          Kentucky
MAAC           Miami, Florida        Cal State Fullerton   Vanderbilt
MAC            Wake Forest           Long Beach State      Arkansas
MEAC           Stetson               East Carolina         Mississippi State
Mid-Continent  Texas                 Rice                  Mississippi
Mountain West  Oklahoma State        Southern Mississippi  Florida
NEC            Missouri              Memphis               College of Charleston
OVC            Oklahoma              Tulane                Western Carolina
Patriot        Texas A&M             Wichita State         Louisiana-Lafayette
Southland      Nebraska              Southern Illinois     Troy
SWAC           Kansas State          Evansville            Pepperdine
WAC            South Florida         Oregon State          San Diego

Pitch Count Watch

Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye -- the general threshold for listing is 120 actual pitches or 130 estimated, although short rest will also get a pitcher listed if I catch it. Don't blame me; I'm just the messenger.

Date   Team   Pitcher   Opponent   IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   AB   BF   Pitches
4/13 Arizona Preston Guilmet Stanford 9.0 5 1 1 1 15 33 36 139(*)
4/13 Boston College Kevin Boggan Maryland 8.0 2 1 1 5 3 25 34 123
4/13 Centenary Brandon Fulenchek Chicago State 8.1 7 1 1 1 6 31 32 123
4/13 Marshall Jeremy Slone East Carolina 6.0 8 4 4 3 5 27 30 126
4/13 Sacred Heart Chris Howard Fairleigh Dickinson 6.2 5 3 0 3 5 26 30 125
4/13 Fordham Cory Riordan Dayton 7.0 9 5 5 2 8 29 31 125
4/13 George Washington Pat Lehman Massachusetts 7.0 5 1 1 4 7 25 29 125
4/13 Indiana Tyler Tufts Purdue 8.0 13 4 4 2 6 35 39 132(*)
4/13 Michigan Zach Putnam Ohio State 8.1 9 4 4 7 1 28 38 133(*)
4/13 Texas-San Antonio Josh Ruffin Northwestern State 9.0 8 3 2 2 4 33 38 129
4/13 Villanova Mike Loree South Florida 9.0 9 2 2 5 6 34 41 160
4/13 Texas State Justin Fiske Southeastern Louisiana 9.0 2 0 0 5 13 29 34 140(*)
4/13 Stony Brook Tom Koehler Hartford 8.0 6 4 2 4 10 31 36 137(*)
4/13 Virginia Tech Greg Fryman Florida State 5.2 15 14 13 4 3 31 37 135
4/13 Boston College Nate Jeanes Maryland 7.0 8 3 2 1 11 28 29 132
4/13 Calumet Kwiatkowski IUPU-Fort Wayne 6.0 21 19 10 2 2 41 44 139(*)
4/14 Arizona Brad Mills Stanford 9.0 7 1 1 1 4 32 33 126
4/14 Arkansas-Little Rock Ashur Tolliver Florida Atlantic 8.0 7 2 1 2 10 30 32 130
4/14 Wofford Ben Austin Davidson 8.0 7 2 2 2 9 29 31 131
4/14 Florida A&M Cirilo Manego Delaware State 7.1 12 9 7 4 7 29 38 129
4/14 Wagner Joe Testa Mount St. Mary's 8.0 9 5 2 1 11 33 35 125
4/14 Northwestern State Heath Hennigan Texas-San Antonio 9.0 5 1 1 4 10 31 36 135
4/14 Eastern Michigan George Biddle Ohio 9.0 7 0 0 3 6 33 37 128
4/14 Georgia State Will Palmer Virginia Commonwealth 7.0 12 6 3 3 2 28 31 133
4/14 Villanova Jordan Ellis South Florida 8.0 7 2 2 3 2 29 33 124
4/14 McNeese State Chris Denton Texas-Arlington 9.0 6 3 3 5 3 30 37 125
4/14 Texas A&M Kyle Nicholson Missouri 9.0 7 1 0 2 6 31 36 131
4/14 Arkansas Nick Schmidt Florida 7.0 7 3 3 4 7 25 32 130
4/14 Oklahoma Stephen Porlier Nebraska 9.0 4 0 0 0 6 30 32 123
4/14 New Mexico State Brian Gausman Northern Colorado 8.2 14 6 6 4 6 37 43 146
4/14 Lamar Allen Harrington Sam Houston State 7.0 6 3 3 5 3 24 30 125
4/15 Florida A&M Timothy Schalch Delaware State 9.0 12 5 4 4 6 40 44 143
4/15 Xavier Charlie Leesman Duquesne 7.0 7 3 3 4 3 26 31 122
4/15 Florida Bryan Augenstein Arkansas 6.2 9 6 6 4 4 28 34 142
4/15 Texas Christian Chance Corgan Nevada-Las Vegas 5.2 8 3 3 4 4 23 30 121
4/15 Dayton Quinn Haselhorst Fordham 7.1 8 6 3 4 8 31 36 121
4/17 Utah Valley State Marcus Moore Utah 8.0 11 4 4 2 5 33 35 131
4/18 Notre Dame Sam Elam Purdue 9.0 1 0 0 6 9 26 33 132(*)

(*) Pitch count is estimated. As always, I welcome actual pitch count corrections.

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Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> How Much More Do You Need to Do? About the author, Boyd Nation