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Publication Date: May 21, 2002
One Last Shot at It
With great trepidation, I'm presenting my predictions for the tournament field here. In doing so, I'm assuming that the committee uses the same criteria that it has used in the past and then arranges geographically. I'm not going to bother with predicting seeds other than the #1's, since those will apparently be decided only after the regional grouping is done.
The legend for the status column:
I - Already in
A - Certain of an at-large bid
BI - Currently in, but still on the bubble
BO - Currently out, but on the bubble
T - Must win tournament
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Florida State 18-6 51-12 2 3 A Wake Forest 17-6 42-9 3 4 A North Carolina 17-7 39-17 12 18 A Clemson 16-8 44-12 1 2 A Georgia Tech 14-9 44-12 5 10 A Virginia 8-16 25-30 57 94 T North Carolina State 7-17 32-24 35 64 T Maryland 6-18 34-22 58 81 T Duke 4-20 23-32 80 125 T
Atlantic Sun Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Central Florida 23-7 36-20 44 66 BI Florida Atlantic 22-8 40-16 48 60 BI Stetson 19-9 40-15 25 45 BI Troy State 16-14 28-28 117 130 T Jacksonville 15-15 26-29 88 116 T Samford 13-17 27-29 174 159 T
Atlantic 10 Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Richmond 22-2 48-8 15 34 A George Washington 17-7 40-20 72 114 BI
Big East Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Notre Dame 18-8 41-14 49 58 A Virginia Tech 18-8 32-24 67 102 BI Boston College 15-11 30-23 68 133 BI Rutgers 15-11 32-20 53 105 BO
Big South Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Coastal Carolina 16-5 39-17 32 55 A Elon 13-8 33-19 39 68 BI Charleston Southern 12-9 23-32 124 158 T Liberty 11-9 29-22 59 89 BO High Point 9-11 25-29 176 179 T Winthrop 8-13 27-28 126 143 T NC-Asheville 7-14 21-28 177 174 T Radford 7-14 18-31 219 215 T
Big Ten Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Minnesota 18-10 30-24 82 90 A Ohio State 18-11 33-18 106 91 A Michigan State 16-12 36-17 79 73 BI Indiana 15-14 34-18 103 108 BO
Big Twelve Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Texas 19-8 43-13 10 6 A Texas Tech 16-11 40-16 22 14 A Nebraska 16-11 39-17 17 16 A Oklahoma 16-11 33-23 29 29 A Oklahoma State 13-13 37-19 42 32 BO Kansas State 13-13 28-23 70 71 T Baylor 13-13 34-22 24 23 BI Texas A&M 13-14 34-22 52 30 BO
Big West Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Cal State Northridge 19-5 40-15 37 15 I Cal State Fullerton 14-7 35-17 23 12 A Long Beach State 14-7 34-19 30 17 A
Colonial Athletic Association
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status James Madison 15-5 41-12 21 36 A NC-Wilmington 14-7 36-19 41 67 BI William & Mary 12-9 31-24 76 127 BO Delaware 12-7 34-20 45 95 BO George Mason 12-7 27-27 108 164 T Va. Commonwealth 13-8 32-24 78 120 T
Conference USA
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Houston 22-7 41-14 6 5 A Louisville 21-9 39-14 33 28 A Texas Christian 19-11 29-27 43 49 BI Southern Mississippi 18-11 35-20 54 41 BO Tulane 17-13 33-23 56 54 BO East Carolina 16-13 37-18 38 40 BO South Florida 16-14 31-25 40 61 BO St. Louis 11-17 22-28 141 123 T
Missouri Valley Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Wichita State 23-9 42-14 20 21 A Creighton 21-10 30-22 50 57 BI SW Missouri State 19-13 37-17 46 33 BO Southern Illinois 17-15 32-22 73 69 T Indiana State 16-15 28-25 91 88 T Northern Iowa 14-18 29-23 100 87 T
Pacific Ten Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Southern California 14-7 31-22 31 20 A Stanford 13-8 37-16 11 7 A Washington 13-8 28-24 83 51 BI Arizona State 12-9 32-19 34 22 A Oregon State 10-11 32-20 77 35 BO
Southeastern Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status South Carolina 21-8 44-12 4 8 A Alabama 20-10 44-12 13 9 A Florida 20-10 40-15 9 13 A Louisiana State 19-10 38-17 8 11 A Auburn 15-15 34-22 28 27 A Georgia 15-15 30-25 16 31 A Mississippi State 14-15 33-22 47 42 BO Arkansas 13-14 30-24 36 39 BO
Southland Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Northwestern State 17-10 40-15 63 44 BO Louisiana-Monroe 17-10 29-27 94 82 T Lamar 16-11 31-22 101 75 T Texas-Arlington 15-11 29-27 115 83 T McNeese State 15-12 29-26 99 76 T Southwest Texas State 14-13 34-22 60 47 T
Sun Belt Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status South Alabama 17-5 38-16 18 26 A Louisiana-Lafayette 17-7 37-19 14 24 A Western Kentucky 14-9 36-18 62 56 BO Fl. International 13-11 39-16 26 53 BO New Orleans 12-12 30-26 71 77 T New Mexico State 10-14 33-23 109 86 T Arkansas State 9-14 22-33 129 128 T Middle Tenn. State 8-16 26-28 118 117 T
Western Athletic Conference
Team Conf All RPI ISR Status Rice 25-2 44-11 7 1 I San Jose State 18-9 42-15 55 19 BO
Others
At this point, I think Miami's on the bubble but out. On the other hand, if they sweep this weekend, then they're at 30-26 and the RPI's absurdly high, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them get in.
America East Conference winner Horizon League winner Harvard Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference winner Mid-American Conference winner Bethune-Cookman Mid-Continent Conference winner Mountain West Conference winner Central Connecticut State Ohio Valley Conference winner Navy Southern Conference winner Southern West Coast Conference winner
Looking over the numbers, I'm predicting three teams listed as a 'T' above to make it in. If fewer than that come through, the next in line are Oklahoma State, Southwest Missouri State, and Southern Mississippi at the moment.
#1 Seeds
In alphabetical order:
Alabama Georgia Tech Rice Southern California Clemson Houston Richmond Stanford Florida Louisiana State South Alabama Texas Florida State Nebraska South Carolina Wake Forest
Close and could move up, or could be given an unmerited #1:
Cal State Northridge James Madison Minnesota North Carolina Notre Dame Wichita State
Geographic Distribution
Using some rather crude categories, here are where the 61 teams I've picked out (Cinderella could come from anywhere, although the lack of guaranteed at-large bids means that she's unlikely to be from the Northeast except for the Big East) come from, with the number of #1 seeds in parentheses. I'm including the team lists so that you can see some of the inequities in quality distribution:
Northeast 6 (0) Boston College, America East, Harvard, Metro Atlantic,
Central Connecticut State, Navy
Midwest 7 (0) Notre Dame, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State,
Horizon, Mid-American, Ohio Valley
Plains 3 (1) Nebraska, Wichita State, Creighton
Atlantic Coast 12 (4) South Carolina, James Madison, NC-Wilmington,
Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson, Richmond,
George Washington, Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina,
Elon, Southern Conference
Southeast 16 (6) Florida State, Georgia Tech, Central Florida,
Florida Atlantic, Stetson, Louisville, Alabama, Florida,
Louisiana State, Auburn, Georgia, Southland,
South Alabama, Louisiana-Lafayette, Bethune-Cookman,
Southern
Southwest 8 (3) Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Houston,
Texas Christian, Rice, Mid-Continent
West 9 (2) Cal State Northridge, Cal State Fullerton,
Long Beach State, Southern California, Stanford,
Washington, Arizona State, Mountain West, West Coast
Given that distribution, I see two regionals in both the Northeast and the Midwest with shipped-in #1 seeds playing with bad competition. Even if you throw in the two Oklahoma teams (or three if OSU makes it), I don't see any way to get more than one regional in the Plains area, which probably bodes poorly for Wichita State right now. I'm guessing there are three out West and two in Texas, although that could switch, especially if the two San Diego teams slip this week -- the West Coast regionals look to be brutal. That leaves six regionals to divvy up between the Atlantic Coast and Southeastern areas; I'm guessing three each since the higher concentration of #1 seeds in the Southeast will lead to more of those teams needing to travel.
Pitch Count Watch
Rather than keep returning to the subject of pitch counts and pitcher usage in general too often for my main theme, I'm just going to run a standard feature down here where I point out potential problems; feel free to stop reading above this if the subject doesn't interest you. This will just be a quick listing of questionable starts that have caught my eye or, on the other hand, starts where pitchers were pulled according to plan early despite pitching extremely well in close games.
| Date | Team | Pitcher | Opponent | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | AB | BF | Pitches |
| May 18 | Fresno State | Bob Runyon | Rice | 6.1 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 30 | 125 |
| May 19 | Louisiana State | Bo Pettit | Alabama | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 37 | 156 |
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