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Publication Date: January 29, 2002
A Fair Comparison, I Hope
This week I'm going to talk almost entirely about minor league baseball. I know that's not really what you're here for, but I'm doing it to shed light on the college game by looking at it from a different perspective, so bear with me. In doing so, I'm hopefully looking at players who are similar enough that I'm not comparing apples with oranges, but rather with a different kind of apples.
First of all, a couple of old columns you need to have read to understand the rest of this:
Pitcher Workloads in College
Estimated Pitch Counts
If you're new here, welcome, and go read those two now; they're worth it, especially the first one. One of the themes that I harp on in that report is that college coaches aren't just recruiting against each other, they're also recruiting against the minor leagues. I got a nice reminder of how true that is this week when I found out that the study I did of Shane Komine in last week's column had been sent to a couple of high school seniors who are Nebraska baseball signees.
In order to show how the pitch count issue hurts the colleges, I wanted to take a look at a comparable group of minor league pitchers to contrast them with the treatment of college aces discussed in those earlier columns. I chose the two Low A leagues to use for comparison -- the Midwest League and the South Atlantic League, generally referred to as the Sally League. There's no such thing as a typical progression through the minors, but most players signed straight out of high school who stick for three or four years end up in the Low A leagues; the usual non-college-veteran player in those leagues tend to be in the 19-21 age range. Therefore, they're a reasonable comparison for college pitchers.
The Heaviest Workloads
In order to pick a reasonable-sized sample for comparison, I took the top three in innings from each of the two leagues:
Midwest: Daigle, Casey South Bend Diamondbacks 164.0 Lockwood, Luke Clinton Expos 163.1 Qualls, Chad Michigan Astros 162.0
SAL: Nannini, Mike Lexington Astros 190.1 Buchholz, Taylor Lakewood Phillies 176.2 Dohmann, Scott Asheville Rockies 173.0
I then compiled game logs for each of the pitchers and ran them through the pitch count estimator. Warning, Will Robinson, big heap of numbers approaching:
Daigle: Lockwood:
IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes
6.0 7 3 3 2 3 25 27 95 4/5/1 7.0 6 1 1 0 4 27 28 94 4/5/1
6.0 6 2 1 2 5 26 29 104 4/10/1 6.0 5 2 2 1 4 25 26 92 4/10/1
6.0 5 1 0 0 6 24 25 88 4/18/1 6.0 7 2 1 2 3 22 25 89 4/17/1
6.0 8 1 1 2 7 29 31 114 4/23/1 5.2 6 1 1 4 2 23 27 100 4/22/1
6.0 5 4 3 3 4 21 24 91 5/3/1 6.2 9 4 2 0 3 30 30 98 4/28/1
6.0 3 0 0 2 1 17 19 70 5/8/1 6.2 3 1 0 5 4 23 29 111 5/4/1
7.0 6 2 2 2 6 26 28 104 5/15/1 8.0 8 4 3 0 6 32 33 111 5/10/1
6.0 6 3 3 1 6 25 26 94 5/20/1 4.1 5 4 2 0 4 20 22 73 5/21/1
4.0 6 4 3 2 0 21 24 80 5/25/1 0.2 5 8 5 3 1 10 13 51 5/28/1
6.1 7 3 3 2 2 26 29 99 6/1/1 6.0 7 4 2 2 4 25 27 97 6/1/1
9.0 7 0 0 1 5 32 33 115 6/7/1 7.0 6 0 0 2 6 26 28 104 6/7/1
4.0 9 9 7 2 1 26 28 93 6/12/1 7.0 3 2 2 3 2 23 26 95 6/12/1
6.1 8 7 6 2 3 26 30 100 6/17/1 6.0 9 1 1 2 4 25 27 98 6/17/1
4.0 8 5 5 4 2 21 26 94 6/24/1 7.0 6 1 0 1 5 28 29 103 6/22/1
7.0 4 6 6 3 4 26 30 107 6/29/1 5.0 7 6 3 1 5 27 28 97 6/27/1
5.0 3 1 0 4 1 19 23 87 7/4/1 7.0 8 5 1 1 5 34 35 119 7/2/1
6.1 11 5 5 0 4 29 29 96 7/9/1 7.0 5 3 3 2 6 27 31 110 7/7/1
3.0 9 9 4 2 0 19 22 72 7/15/1 7.0 5 2 1 3 6 25 29 108 7/14/1
5.0 6 7 1 1 2 23 24 81 7/20/1 7.0 5 1 1 1 3 27 28 97 7/19/1
7.1 5 2 2 1 3 29 31 104 7/26/1 7.0 6 4 4 3 8 27 30 115 7/25/1
6.0 9 6 5 2 2 29 31 105 7/31/1 6.0 5 3 1 2 6 27 30 108 7/30/1
7.0 12 6 6 0 5 32 32 106 8/5/1 8.0 6 2 2 2 5 28 31 110 8/4/1
7.0 4 2 1 3 3 25 28 102 8/11/1 9.0 3 0 0 1 4 30 31 108 8/10/1
3.1 7 6 5 3 0 18 23 78 8/17/1 5.1 7 7 7 5 2 22 29 104 8/15/1
6.0 2 0 0 3 6 22 25 98 9/1/1 5.0 3 4 1 2 6 20 22 85 8/24/1
Qualls: Nannini:
IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes
2.0 2 1 1 0 3 8 8 33 4/10/1 6.0 7 2 1 3 3 25 28 102 4/22/1
5.0 5 4 4 1 4 21 23 80 4/13/1 6.0 7 4 4 1 8 24 25 94 4/27/1
5.0 5 4 2 1 3 21 23 79 4/20/1 6.2 7 1 1 1 5 29 30 105 5/2/1
7.0 4 2 1 1 8 27 28 104 4/26/1 7.0 4 0 0 1 6 26 27 99 5/8/1
5.0 8 2 1 0 8 24 24 88 5/2/1 7.0 6 6 2 2 7 29 31 113 5/13/1
6.0 5 3 2 2 7 22 24 93 5/8/1 7.1 7 2 1 0 8 30 31 108 5/18/1
7.0 3 0 0 1 8 24 26 97 5/12/1 9.0 4 1 1 2 11 32 35 148 5/23/1
6.0 9 8 6 1 5 28 30 101 5/17/1 8.0 4 0 0 0 3 31 31 103 5/29/1
9.0 4 1 1 0 8 31 31 111 5/22/1 8.0 5 3 3 1 10 30 31 115 6/3/1
7.0 5 1 1 4 8 25 31 119 5/28/1 8.0 6 0 0 3 3 28 31 112 6/10/1
7.0 2 0 0 1 3 23 24 85 6/4/1 9.0 3 0 0 3 7 29 32 121 6/15/1
7.2 9 3 3 0 4 32 32 106 6/9/1 8.0 9 6 5 1 3 35 36 119 6/22/1
7.0 8 5 4 0 5 29 29 98 6/14/1 7.0 6 0 0 2 7 27 29 109 6/27/1
6.0 3 0 0 2 7 23 25 97 6/22/1 6.2 7 3 3 2 6 28 30 109 7/3/1
8.0 4 3 3 0 6 29 30 102 6/27/1 7.1 13 7 6 4 3 35 39 149 7/8/1
8.0 4 2 2 2 4 29 31 110 7/2/1 8.1 5 2 2 1 7 29 30 108 7/14/1
6.0 10 6 6 0 6 28 28 96 7/7/1 8.0 7 2 2 0 5 30 30 102 7/19/1
5.0 5 3 3 1 1 21 22 75 7/15/1 6.0 8 3 3 1 4 27 29 99 7/26/1
8.0 5 1 1 2 3 30 32 112 7/20/1 7.0 4 1 1 0 3 24 24 82 7/31/1
5.0 8 5 5 1 1 23 24 80 7/26/1 4.0 5 5 5 1 2 17 19 65 8/5/1
8.0 4 2 1 2 2 26 29 100 7/31/1 5.0 3 2 1 2 5 19 21 81 8/10/1
5.0 8 7 7 1 3 23 26 85 8/5/1 7.0 6 1 0 1 6 25 26 95 8/16/1
4.1 10 7 6 1 6 25 26 92 8/11/1 6.0 13 9 6 1 4 34 36 117 8/21/1
4.0 9 6 6 3 2 22 25 89 8/16/1 5.0 4 2 2 1 6 18 20 75 8/26/1
7.0 3 0 0 1 4 22 23 84 8/24/1 7.0 6 2 2 1 8 26 27 101 8/31/1
7.0 7 1 1 3 6 27 31 114 8/29/1
Buchholz: Dohmann:
IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes IP H R ER BB SO AB BF EPC Notes
2.2 6 6 4 4 3 17 21 82 4/10/1 3.1 11 7 7 0 2 23 23 74 4/8/1
6.0 8 3 0 1 4 27 28 97 4/21/1 6.0 4 2 2 1 4 21 25 85 4/13/1
6.0 5 1 1 1 5 21 22 81 4/26/1 4.2 7 4 4 2 7 20 22 86 4/19/1
8.0 5 1 1 1 2 27 29 97 5/1/1 7.0 3 1 0 0 9 25 25 94 4/24/1
5.1 6 5 4 5 5 23 28 109 5/7/1 8.0 3 0 0 1 9 28 29 109 4/30/1
6.0 4 4 4 2 5 23 25 92 5/12/1 7.1 7 2 2 0 3 30 30 99 5/5/1
7.0 9 4 3 2 2 29 31 106 5/17/1 6.0 4 3 2 1 10 23 25 96 5/11/1
4.0 6 5 1 3 5 23 26 97 5/22/1 7.0 7 3 3 3 4 29 33 117 5/16/1
6.0 6 2 2 2 6 24 28 101 5/28/1 5.0 8 7 7 2 3 22 24 85 5/21/1
6.0 6 1 1 5 5 23 28 111 6/2/1 6.0 7 2 2 0 4 25 25 86 5/26/1
2.0 7 6 6 4 0 12 16 62 6/7/1 7.0 1 0 0 3 4 23 26 99 5/31/1
6.0 5 6 2 3 3 24 29 101 6/12/1 6.0 8 7 6 3 6 25 29 106 6/6/1
5.0 11 5 5 3 3 24 27 97 6/17/1 7.0 8 4 2 1 6 29 32 109 6/11/1
9.0 6 3 3 3 5 32 35 126 6/25/1 6.0 6 2 2 1 5 24 26 92 6/16/1
9.0 5 0 0 1 7 32 34 120 6/30/1 6.0 7 4 4 2 5 22 25 91 6/21/1
9.0 4 0 0 1 8 31 32 117 7/6/1 8.0 5 2 2 4 6 30 35 129 6/26/1
7.0 4 2 2 2 5 25 27 99 7/14/1 8.0 8 3 3 0 6 32 32 109 7/2/1
7.1 3 1 1 1 3 23 24 85 7/19/1 7.0 4 0 0 0 5 24 25 87 7/7/1
9.0 3 0 0 0 12 30 30 114 7/24/1 2.2 2 1 1 1 1 13 16 55 7/12/1
5.0 3 3 3 4 4 20 26 97 7/30/1 6.0 9 4 4 1 3 26 27 92 7/17/1
8.0 7 1 1 1 8 30 31 113 8/4/1 5.0 11 7 7 0 2 25 25 80 7/22/1
6.0 5 4 4 3 4 23 26 97 8/9/1 7.0 1 0 0 0 5 22 22 79 7/29/1
4.0 11 7 7 2 3 24 27 92 8/17/1 6.0 6 4 4 1 8 24 26 95 8/14/1
5.0 5 3 2 2 5 21 25 90 8/23/1 7.0 7 4 4 1 8 28 29 106 8/19/1
8.0 6 3 3 0 5 30 30 102 8/28/1 7.0 3 1 1 2 10 25 27 107 8/25/1
8.0 4 0 0 0 9 30 30 109 9/2/1 4.0 9 9 9 1 5 20 23 78 8/30/1
Disclaimers: The really astute among you have already noticed that these are not complete records; the occasional box score gets lost during the season, so it would have been amazing if I could have found them all six months later. I'm missing between zero and two starts per pitcher.
More importantly, there's a double estimation going on here. At bats and batters faced are a part of the standard college box score, so they're included in the EPC formula. On the other hand, they're not a part of the standard minor league box score, so I had to estimate them. What I used was AB = IP * 3 + H + E - DP, where E is team errors for the game and DP is team double plays for the game. This means that the starting pitcher gets credited with an at bat for all errors by his team, even those after he left the game, but he also gets one subtracted for any double plays after he leaves. Since an at bat is only worth two or three pitches in the EPC formula, I can live with that. BF = AB + BB + HBP, which ignores the occasional oddity that hasn't been covered, but those are extremely rare.
Between the different uncertainties, there's obviously some room for error in the estimated pitch counts, but it's unlikely to do enough damage to make a count completely useless, and it's a rough estimate I'm looking for here. I'm not certain by any means that Nannini threw 148 pitches on May 23, but I am sure that he threw a complete game and struck out 11, so it's highly unlikely that he got out of there with under 130 pitches, for example. Likewise, while I don't know that Buchholz came out after 109 pitches on September 2 (8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K), I doubt he went over 120. In other words, I may not be willing to completely stand behind these numbers, but I'm willing to stand near them.
So, How'd We Do?
Minor league managers are not perfect, and these guys go close to 120 a little too often for me to be completely comfortable. Still, there's nothing here that even remotely compares to the loads that Komine, Kenny Baugh, or Pete Montrenes faced last year. Out of over 150 starts, I only see three where the estimate comes in higher than 120. Two of those belong to Nannini, and he's kind of a special case -- last year he was only 20 years old, but, because the Astros rushed him a bit in getting him to the Midwest League in only his second pro year in 1999, he was in his third consecutive year in Low A, and I suspect they were trying to let him have one last chance to break out. It's not a strategy I would have taken, and I may be misinterpreting the situation, but that's my best guess, and it covers the two worst outings I can find -- they only happen to guys the team is about to give up on.
I've said before that one of the things that I love about college baseball is the chance to play for something that matters at a young age. Given a choice with all other factors being equal, almost anyone would rather pitch in a super-regional matchup between Nebraska and Rice than in another game between Beloit and Burlington. But all other things aren't equal, these kids have a whole lifetime to consider, and this recruiting problem is only going to get worse unless some practices change.
Internet Audio Returns
The Internet Audio page has been updated for this year, and there are two great matchups this weekend as Cal State Fullerton kicks off at Stanford and Miami hosts Tennessee. No businessman's specials yet, but it won't be long.
| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Fuji vs. Golden Delicious | About the author, Boyd Nation |