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Publication Date: August 6, 2002
ERA and RBOA
When I was in junior high, I set a conference record for the 800 meters in track and field. When they announced it at the meet, I was quite proud. Later that week, though, I found out that they had only started keeping records the year before -- in other words, all I did was win the race and finish faster than the guy who won the year before. That sort of deflated my bubble a bit. I don't know how long my record lasted, but I doubt it was more than a year or two; the time wasn't that great.
Last year, I introduced a new stat called Runs below Opponent Average, designed to be a smarter way to measure pitcher performance. Lots of folks were ready to declare Mark Prior's season last year to be the best ever, and I was pleased when RBOA showed him to be head and shoulders above everyone else for the season. The problem with that was that that perception was based on only one year's basis with nothing to compare it to. It turns out that someone this year (no peeking) put up a higher RBOA total than Prior managed last year with much less fanfare.
To be honest, I think that's probably more an indictment of the stat than of Prior's performance. There's no adjustment made for the quality of opposition that the opponent put up their scoring average against (quick, who led Division I in scoring this year?), and that skews things a bit. Utah and Clemson tied in scoring average this year, for example, but for any given pitcher, I would suspect that Clemson would tend to have put up more runs. This doesn't completely invalidate the results -- I still think they're a better fit than raw ERA or RA -- but it does mean that the numbers have to be considered in context.
On to the numbers. First, the ERA leaders for last year, with a minimum of 10 appearances and 5 IP per start in order to weed out the relievers, for whom I don't have a good measure yet.
1 Tim Stauffer Richmond 1.54 2 John Tetuan Wichita State 1.72 3 Devin Monds Northeastern 1.80 4 Brad Sullivan Houston 1.82 5 Justin Verlander Old Dominion 1.90 6 Justin Crowder Rice 2.00 7 Geoff Lefeber Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.20 8 Jim Carone Monmouth 2.21 9 Rene Recio Oral Roberts 2.23 10 Joe Wilson Maryland-Baltimore County 2.26 11 John Corcoran Butler 2.29 12 Shane Komine Nebraska 2.33 13 Dave Cerminaro Lehigh 2.34 14 Chris Tracz Marist 2.36 15 Wes Littleton Cal State Fullerton 2.40 16 Jeremy Guthrie Stanford 2.51 17 Justin Simmons Texas 2.53 18 Ryan Bicondoa Western Kentucky 2.55 19 Zach Otte Indiana 2.56 20 Jared Doyle James Madison 2.57 21 Andy Gros Louisiana-Lafayette 2.59 22 David Sanders Wichita State 2.59 23 Lane Mestepey Louisiana State 2.59 24 O. J. King Northwestern State 2.63 25 Casey Johnson Northwestern State 2.70
Next the RBOA leaders. Note that I'm able to be much more thorough than I was last year because of the data that I gathered for pitch count purposes, so there are a few guys here who aren't on the ERA list, for example.
1 Tim Stauffer Richmond 83.95 2 Kyle Bakker Georgia Tech 71.19 3 Lane Mestepey Louisiana State 68.84 4 Jeremy Guthrie Stanford 61.92 5 Wes Littleton Cal State Fullerton 59.92 6 Brad Sullivan Houston 54.71 7 Bryan Bullington Ball State 49.98 8 Matt Henrie Clemson 48.82 9 Justin Verlander Old Dominion 48.81 10 Matt Lynch Florida State 47.51 11 Brian Wilson Louisiana State 46.41 12 Abe Alvarez Long Beach State 44.53 13 Shea Douglas Southern Mississippi 43.38 14 Justin Simmons Texas 42.48 15 Lance Cormier Alabama 41.84 16 Whitt Farr William and Mary 41.13 17 Steven Carter Coastal Carolina 41.07 18 Shane Komine Nebraska 40.51 19 Helpiz Moises Bethune-Cookman 39.87 20 Blair Varnes Florida State 39.65 21 Aaron Marsden Nebraska 39.17 22 Bo Pettit Louisiana State 38.87 23 Justin Taylor Baylor 38.30 24 Nick Bourgeois Tulane 35.22 25 Kyle Schmidt Georgia Tech 35.11
By the way, Southern led the nation in scoring last year by almost a run-and-a-half. Schedule notwithstanding, they were a legitimately good offensive team, but not by that much.
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| Boyd's World-> Breadcrumbs Back to Omaha-> Smart Stats for 2002, Part II: The Pitchers | About the author, Boyd Nation |