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Publication Date: August 8, 2000
Single Goals vs. Long-Term Quality
One of those simple truisms that always seems to shock people when they learn it is that not all fans are pleased by the same things. There are, at the core, as many different types of fans as there are fans, but there are certainly some broad categories out there. The most plentiful, of course, are those who would be most pleased by a national championship and are only mildly interested in individual games, and then only in connection with that final goal. There are those, especially in college baseball, who have a loyalty to the institution represented and little interest in the specific sport. Conversely, there are those who are basically fans of the baseball experience -- the games, the weather, the atmosphere -- and aren't that concerned with the outcome. Finally, there are those who are interested in long-term program strength. None of these people are "wrong" -- indeed, it's silly to think that anyone could be wrong about how they choose to enjoy a form of entertainment -- but it's sometimes fun to watch the different groups interact.
This week's column is designed for that last group. We've talked before here about the randomness of the national championship, so we won't rehash that here, but my belief is that it's much harder to build long term success than to win one year's championship, so I want to look at the teams that have been successful over the last few years. As always, I can only present the data that I have, so I'll be taking a look at cumulative ISR's for the last three seasons, 1998-2000.
Three-Year ISR's
The full list will be at the bottom, but here's the top 10, with program-by-program comments:
Rank ISR W L Team 1 126.8 140 45 Stanford 2 123.9 162 51 Florida State 3 123.7 124 62 Southern California 4 122.5 133 52 Cal State Fullerton 5 122.4 138 60 Louisiana State 6 121.5 135 44 Miami, Florida 7 121.4 125 51 Baylor 8 121.4 136 58 Alabama 9 120.4 124 58 Arizona State 10 120.1 141 55 Rice
Stanford has not been the dominant team in the country for the last three years by exactly one measure -- lack of postseason success. By any other measure, which means any that I'm likely to take seriously, they've been by far the most consistent team in the country. They were the #2 team in the country in 1998, the #3 team in 1999, and the #2 team in 2000. They and Florida State are the only two teams to finish in the top 10 all three years. They're the only team to win the regular-season title in one of the big four conferences for each of the last three years. In short, they've been nothing short of consistently outstanding, and it's a shame to see them occasionally criticised because of the randomness of post-season play.
Florida State has been, as mentioned above, in the top ten each of the last three years, finishing at #5, #1, and #5 in the ISR's. It's been so long since FSU wasn't a dominant team that it's hard to imagine that they haven't won the CWS yet. They're the only team to be in each of the last three CWS's, and, like Stanford, only the loss of one particular game there robs them of the respect they deserve.
Southern California represents the best of the teams that have had an off-year (although only mildly off) during the last three seasons. Their ISR rankings have been #1, #21, and #4 during the last three years. However, because they did win a national championship with what was probably the best team in the country in 1998 and the 1999 team was widely perceived to have been slighted in their super-regional matchup, the only thing harming their reputation is distance of memory from their best team of the three. They are probably considered to be the best West Coast team despite the fact that they haven't won a conference championship in the three years under consideration.
Cal State Fullerton is harmed both by the nearness of memory factor (2000 was the worst of the three seasons for them) and by the RPI problems with West Coast teams. Still, they've been quite consistently fairly good, and went as high as #2 in the ISR's for the 1999 season.
Louisiana State would, of course, be the man on the street's consensus answer to the question, "Who's been the best team in the country for the last n years?" They've certainly been successful, but the relative mediocrity of the 1999 team keeps them off the top spot here.
Miami was very good in 1998, finishing at #4 in the ISR's. They were fairly good in 1999, riding a wave of late-season success to a national championship and a #6 ISR, a phenomenon only partly fueled by their absurd seeding in that tournament. This year, they were only good in relative terms; any Miami team that just barely wins 2/3 of their games against their schedule is going to have trouble cracking the top 20 in the ISR's. This is another program that is consistently good but probably gets overrated at the extreme end of the quality curve.
Baylor is interesting in the up-and-coming division. Would anyone, sitting around in 1997, have guessed that Baylor would be one of the nation's top 10 programs over the next three years? They've been #21, #4, and #9 over the last three years, and there's no reason I can see for them not to be an early favorite for another quiet Big 12 title next year. The only piece missing has been post-season success -- they haven't managed to make it to Omaha yet, being the first casualty of the "don't be #1 in the ISR's going into the super-regional" rule that appears to be setting itself up.
Alabama has been another quiet success story. Although the program has dropped off a bit since it's peak-to-date in the 1996 and 1997 seasons, they still have one trip to Omaha and a nice consistent ISR run to show for the last three years.
Arizona State may be the leading contender in the grievances with the selection committee contest, and that's quite a race. The 1998 team, of course, managed to get into the tournament, something that has required them to be better than most for the latter half of the '90's, and almost won it all, ending up at #6 in the ISR's. The 1999 team was a respectable #35 in the ISR's, surely deserved an at large bid, and was not invited, probably due to RPI problems. The 2000 team came in at #7 after the season, but was at #4 when the selections were made and was given a tougher regional than they deserved.
Rice was the tenth best program of the last three years. Go back and read that sentence again. Then go read the 1999 version of the EFI's, which don't include their 2000 success yet, and marvel at how incredible this is.
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The Full List
Note: W-L records are Division I only. Rank Rating W L Team 1 126.8 140 45 Stanford 2 123.9 162 51 Florida State 3 123.7 124 62 Southern California 4 122.5 133 52 Cal State Fullerton 5 122.4 138 60 Louisiana State 6 121.5 135 44 Miami, Florida 7 121.4 125 51 Baylor 8 121.4 136 58 Alabama 9 120.4 124 58 Arizona State 10 120.1 141 55 Rice 11 119.1 133 57 Auburn 12 118.4 134 51 South Carolina 13 118.3 124 64 Mississippi State 14 118.3 121 66 Florida 15 118.1 145 42 Wichita State 16 118.1 136 61 Clemson 17 117.3 108 73 Long Beach State 18 117.1 129 58 Georgia Tech 19 116.9 123 66 Houston 20 116.8 128 58 North Carolina 21 116.8 102 62 Texas Tech 22 116.4 108 54 Nebraska 23 116.4 106 61 Nevada 24 116.3 116 73 Texas A&M 25 116.2 134 54 Tulane 26 116.1 104 79 Texas 27 115.9 130 59 Wake Forest 28 115.8 112 59 Pepperdine 29 115.7 99 69 Oklahoma 30 115.5 94 73 Arkansas 31 115.5 125 67 Louisiana-Lafayette 32 114.8 119 62 Oklahoma State 33 114.7 91 74 Arizona 34 114.3 91 90 UCLA 35 113.5 93 69 Washington 36 113.4 91 75 Mississippi 37 113.3 100 70 Loyola Marymount 38 113.2 104 77 Fresno State 39 112.9 91 60 Missouri 40 112.7 112 55 Minnesota 41 112.7 95 68 Hawaii 42 111.5 91 70 San Jose State 43 111.5 70 90 California 44 111.5 117 51 Ohio State 45 111.0 95 70 Tennessee 46 111.0 127 63 Florida International 47 110.9 108 72 South Alabama 48 110.8 108 76 North Carolina State 49 110.7 122 63 East Carolina 50 110.7 103 66 Louisiana-Monroe 51 110.4 126 58 Florida Atlantic 52 110.4 74 75 Oregon State 53 109.8 118 62 Central Florida 54 109.8 120 50 Notre Dame 55 109.7 126 57 Virginia Commonwealth 56 109.7 102 77 Southern Mississippi 57 109.6 81 80 Texas Christian 58 109.1 85 82 Kentucky 59 109.0 97 66 Northwestern State 60 109.0 79 86 Georgia 61 108.8 90 85 San Diego State 62 108.8 105 66 Illinois 63 108.6 91 70 McNeese State 64 108.1 104 73 Jacksonville 65 108.1 107 63 Richmond 66 107.9 92 88 New Orleans 67 107.6 85 79 San Diego 68 107.6 81 85 Southwest Texas State 69 107.5 68 80 Cal-Santa Barbara 70 107.3 62 84 Washington State 71 107.2 110 55 Rutgers 72 107.0 78 86 Nevada-Las Vegas 73 106.9 84 70 Southwest Missouri State 74 106.8 92 75 Creighton 75 106.8 100 70 North Carolina-Charlotte 76 106.8 115 64 The Citadel 77 106.6 99 70 Old Dominion 78 106.5 98 74 Evansville 79 106.5 123 49 Oral Roberts 80 106.4 75 79 New Mexico 81 106.3 67 79 Cal State Northridge 82 106.3 72 78 Pacific 83 105.2 82 72 Lamar 84 104.7 75 92 Virginia 85 104.7 67 93 Vanderbilt 86 104.6 58 57 Texas-Pan American 87 104.6 89 83 Western Kentucky 88 104.5 69 99 Santa Clara 89 104.5 89 72 Illinois State 90 104.3 99 66 Penn State 91 104.0 85 80 Louisville 92 104.0 62 78 Gonzaga 93 104.0 100 76 Stetson 94 104.0 76 36 Providence 95 103.8 81 93 South Florida 96 103.8 105 67 Coastal Carolina 97 103.6 81 78 Indiana State 98 103.6 69 89 San Francisco 99 103.5 73 83 Southeastern Louisiana 100 103.5 107 56 Ball State 101 103.4 103 69 North Carolina-Greensboro 102 103.4 25 29 Grand Canyon 103 103.3 60 98 Cal State Sacramento 104 103.0 103 61 Virginia Tech 105 103.0 79 86 Alabama-Birmingham 106 103.0 67 85 Sam Houston State 107 102.9 62 76 Brigham Young 108 102.9 102 74 Winthrop 109 102.7 70 93 Nicholls State 110 102.5 90 64 Southeast Missouri State 111 102.5 94 60 Seton Hall 112 102.4 80 82 Purdue 113 102.4 72 87 Michigan 114 102.3 60 96 Cal Poly 115 102.1 55 91 Kansas State 116 101.8 92 80 Liberty 117 101.7 61 91 Texas-Arlington 118 101.6 77 79 Northwestern 119 101.5 75 70 Indiana 120 101.3 59 85 Utah 121 101.2 87 83 Troy State 122 101.2 43 95 Kansas 123 101.0 86 60 St. John's 124 101.0 89 82 Georgia Southern 125 100.9 87 83 North Carolina-Wilmington 126 100.8 63 96 Texas-San Antonio 127 100.6 96 77 Western Carolina 128 100.4 72 91 Duke 129 100.1 98 70 Kent 130 100.0 59 92 Arkansas State 131 100.0 93 68 Bowling Green State 132 99.9 112 54 Delaware 133 99.9 46 94 St. Mary's 134 99.8 82 58 Connecticut 135 99.8 95 74 Miami, Ohio 136 99.7 69 98 Arkansas-Little Rock 137 99.7 69 94 Southern Illinois 138 99.6 49 90 Portland 139 99.6 54 99 Louisiana Tech 140 99.5 42 95 Iowa State 141 99.4 14 32 Portland State 142 99.3 85 87 Middle Tennessee State 143 99.2 90 73 West Virginia 144 99.2 86 70 Central Michigan 145 99.1 85 72 Eastern Illinois 146 99.0 76 92 Cincinnati 147 99.0 90 78 College of Charleston 148 98.9 84 75 William and Mary 149 98.9 86 86 James Madison 150 98.9 73 96 Maryland 151 98.5 67 94 Memphis 152 98.5 67 87 Northern Iowa 153 98.5 74 90 Bradley 154 98.4 70 84 Mercer 155 98.2 75 86 Georgia State 156 98.2 75 85 George Mason 157 97.6 88 79 Eastern Kentucky 158 97.6 80 82 Austin Peay State 159 97.5 80 93 Charleston Southern 160 97.4 66 62 Boston College 161 97.4 72 80 Jacksonville State 162 97.4 95 69 George Washington 163 97.4 85 76 Ohio 164 97.3 78 66 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 165 97.3 58 85 Michigan State 166 97.2 35 99 New Mexico State 167 97.1 54 78 Southern Utah 168 97.1 67 80 Elon 169 96.9 79 86 Campbell 170 96.9 23 90 Hawaii-Hilo 171 96.7 74 56 Harvard 172 96.4 19 17 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 173 96.4 66 91 Radford 174 96.2 79 82 Western Michigan 175 95.4 79 57 Massachusetts 176 95.1 74 54 Princeton 177 95.0 70 93 Furman 178 94.8 62 65 Belmont 179 94.6 79 44 Southern 180 94.6 69 71 Villanova 181 94.5 85 69 Towson State 182 94.3 68 87 East Tennessee State 183 94.3 47 92 Iowa 184 94.2 30 11 Stony Brook 185 94.0 73 83 Toledo 186 93.8 70 103 North Carolina-Asheville 187 93.6 68 87 Tennessee Tech 188 93.0 46 110 St. Louis 189 92.9 41 99 Air Force 190 92.8 71 72 Butler 191 92.7 63 86 Xavier 192 92.7 47 104 Centenary 193 92.6 65 78 Pittsburgh 194 92.6 60 87 Murray State 195 92.3 74 63 Northeastern 196 92.2 53 105 Samford 197 92.2 76 45 LeMoyne 198 92.1 80 43 Grambling State 199 92.0 74 85 Bethune-Cookman 200 91.8 61 82 Dayton 201 91.3 76 57 Navy 202 90.9 90 58 Marist 203 90.9 53 89 Eastern Michigan 204 90.6 60 88 Morehead State 205 90.5 51 50 Dartmouth 206 90.3 50 103 Davidson 207 90.3 65 97 Cleveland State 208 90.2 63 57 St. Bonaventure 209 90.0 84 62 Jackson State 210 89.9 66 74 Temple 211 89.7 65 97 Akron 212 89.7 37 50 Oakland 213 89.5 68 70 Vermont 214 89.4 68 73 Maine 215 89.4 66 89 Duquesne 216 89.1 60 94 Wright State 217 89.1 70 74 Fordham 218 88.7 64 85 Valparaiso 219 88.6 44 104 Appalachian State 220 88.4 79 71 Monmouth 221 88.3 75 66 Iona 222 88.3 55 92 Virginia Military 223 87.7 29 65 High Point 224 87.6 70 52 Long Island 225 87.4 63 76 Rhode Island 226 87.2 55 82 Florida A&M 227 87.2 68 68 Fairfield 228 87.2 58 76 Brown 229 86.8 69 83 Rider 230 86.7 45 106 Wofford 231 86.5 45 75 Illinois-Chicago 232 86.5 66 86 Siena 233 86.3 69 65 Bucknell 234 86.2 40 77 Detroit Mercy 235 86.1 58 80 Maryland-Baltimore County 236 86.1 56 72 Hofstra 237 85.8 42 98 Western Illinois 238 85.8 47 108 Marshall 239 85.8 67 76 Norfolk State 240 85.6 58 95 Youngstown State 241 84.7 37 108 Tennessee-Martin 242 84.7 58 92 St. Joseph's 243 84.5 46 81 Chicago State 244 84.4 46 81 Yale 245 83.9 42 85 New York Tech 246 83.7 55 78 Texas Southern 247 83.7 37 64 Cornell 248 83.4 49 70 C. W. Post 249 83.2 17 22 Albany 250 82.8 59 102 Howard 251 82.8 52 65 St. Francis 252 82.7 60 75 Manhattan 253 82.6 33 121 Northern Illinois 254 82.5 48 67 Army 255 82.2 46 93 LaSalle 256 81.9 41 104 Georgetown 257 81.8 55 71 Central Connecticut State 258 81.5 37 61 Pennsylvania 259 81.4 48 53 Alcorn State 260 81.3 47 66 Fairleigh Dickinson 261 81.0 53 106 Drexel 262 80.2 40 66 Niagara 263 80.1 37 84 Pace 264 79.8 30 44 Quinnipiac 265 79.1 51 87 Wagner 266 78.8 40 118 North Carolina A&T 267 78.7 8 30 Northeastern Illinois 268 78.7 31 88 Columbia 269 78.5 37 98 Hartford 270 78.2 44 70 Lehigh 271 76.8 37 71 Alabama State 272 76.3 47 56 Delaware State 273 75.6 15 75 IUPUI 274 75.4 32 79 Holy Cross 275 75.1 36 94 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 276 75.1 38 93 Mount St. Mary's 277 73.9 29 66 Mississippi Valley State 278 73.3 30 80 Lafayette 279 73.3 29 87 Canisius 280 73.1 20 45 Alabama A&M 281 72.5 10 35 Buffalo 282 71.9 12 106 Prairie View A&M 283 71.6 25 106 St. Peter's 284 71.5 11 38 Sacred Heart 285 64.5 10 112 Coppin State 286 63.5 17 100 Maryland-Eastern Shore
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