| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. The algorithm has changed slightly this year to incorporate my recent findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 87.4 66.9 26.5 13.2 Texas 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Boston College 9.6 2.6 0.2 0.1 Texas State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 48.4 15.6 2.9 1.0 Texas Christian 23.6 6.3 1.0 0.3 Texas A&M 28.1 8.1 2.1 0.8 Oregon State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wright State 67.3 39.8 6.0 1.8 Florida 29.2 13.0 1.5 0.4 Miami, Florida 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 72.1 39.1 5.7 1.9 Georgia Tech 19.2 6.1 0.4 0.1 Elon 8.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 Southern Mississippi 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Georgia State 68.5 49.1 11.2 4.0 North Carolina 18.7 8.0 0.5 0.1 Coastal Carolina 12.6 4.1 0.3 0.1 Kansas 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dartmouth 54.5 21.7 1.9 0.4 East Carolina 40.6 16.2 2.2 0.6 South Carolina 5.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 George Mason 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 88.6 78.2 34.1 19.2 Arizona State 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 Oral Roberts 7.6 3.0 0.4 0.1 Cal Poly 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kent State 64.5 12.8 2.4 0.8 Clemson 17.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 Alabama 18.1 2.4 0.3 0.1 Oklahoma State 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tennessee Tech 89.2 83.4 46.4 32.6 Cal State Fullerton 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 Georgia Southern 7.1 3.3 0.4 0.1 Gonzaga 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Utah 47.3 6.0 0.5 0.1 Louisville 26.7 3.6 0.4 0.1 Middle Tennessee State 24.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 Vanderbilt 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Indiana 54.5 34.6 5.5 2.2 Oklahoma 32.0 13.8 1.7 0.5 Arkansas 11.3 3.9 0.3 0.1 Washington State 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Wichita State 58.7 30.8 3.9 1.3 Florida State 35.0 15.5 1.5 0.5 Georgia 6.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 Ohio State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Marist 79.0 46.2 9.2 3.7 Louisiana State 10.1 2.7 0.1 0.0 Minnesota 10.9 2.9 0.2 0.0 Baylor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southern 65.1 36.7 8.3 4.2 Rice 29.7 10.9 1.3 0.4 Kansas State 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Xavier 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Sam Houston State 76.4 54.8 14.4 7.3 UC Irvine 17.4 7.5 0.9 0.3 Virginia 5.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 San Diego State 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Fresno State 72.9 29.5 4.1 1.4 Mississippi 20.0 5.8 0.4 0.1 Missouri 7.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 Western Kentucky 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Monmouth
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2009 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |