| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2011 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2011 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 95.7 75.0 29.9 17.2 Virginia 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 East Carolina 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. John's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Navy 34.0 5.2 0.7 0.2 UCLA 41.4 12.5 3.3 1.2 Fresno State 21.3 5.7 1.0 0.3 UC Irvine 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 72.2 50.6 11.3 4.5 Rice 10.4 2.9 0.1 0.0 Baylor 17.4 6.3 0.5 0.1 California 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alcorn State 52.9 22.2 2.1 0.6 Texas Christian 40.8 17.0 1.7 0.5 Oklahoma 4.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 Dallas Baptist 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 86.8 64.5 18.8 8.6 South Carolina 5.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 Stetson 6.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 North Carolina State 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Georgia Southern 81.8 30.0 6.8 2.7 Clemson 7.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 10.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 Coastal Carolina 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sacred Heart 86.2 64.4 19.1 8.7 Florida State 8.6 2.3 0.1 0.0 Central Florida 5.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 Alabama 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 70.1 24.3 3.3 1.1 Texas A&M 28.6 8.1 0.8 0.2 Arizona 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Seton Hall 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wright State 77.3 53.9 11.7 5.6 Florida 20.6 10.3 0.8 0.3 Miami, Florida 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Manhattan 58.0 23.4 2.4 0.8 Georgia Tech 33.8 10.4 0.9 0.3 Southern Mississippi 8.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 Mississippi State 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Austin Peay State 78.6 36.5 5.4 2.4 Texas 12.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 Texas State 8.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 Kent State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Princeton 80.2 52.8 11.9 6.5 Arizona State 19.1 7.4 0.8 0.2 Arkansas 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Charlotte 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Mexico 91.8 68.8 26.7 16.7 North Carolina 7.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 Florida International 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 James Madison 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Maine 73.1 23.5 7.0 3.7 Cal State Fullerton 23.8 5.8 0.8 0.3 Stanford 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Kansas State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Illinois 89.4 69.6 26.2 14.9 Vanderbilt 8.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 Oklahoma State 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Troy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Belmont 71.8 23.4 4.5 2.0 Oregon State 17.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 Creighton 11.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 Georgia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Arkansas-Little Rock
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2011 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |