| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2012 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2012 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 85.1 63.4 20.1 8.4 Florida 11.6 4.8 0.6 0.1 Georgia Tech 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 College of Charleston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bethune-Cookman 66.8 21.6 4.8 1.5 North Carolina State 29.4 9.2 1.1 0.3 Vanderbilt 3.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sacred Heart 81.0 59.3 15.0 6.1 South Carolina 13.3 5.1 0.5 0.1 Clemson 5.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 Coastal Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Manhattan 70.5 27.4 5.7 2.0 Virginia 19.3 4.6 0.5 0.1 Oklahoma 9.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 Appalachian State 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 80.3 54.0 16.8 7.1 Baylor 14.4 4.9 0.5 0.1 Dallas Baptist 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 Texas-Arlington 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 65.2 28.1 7.4 2.8 Rice 28.1 11.2 2.3 0.7 Arkansas 6.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prairie View A&M 67.4 50.8 14.1 6.0 Oregon 29.8 17.3 5.0 2.1 Cal State Fullerton 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 Indiana State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Austin Peay State 55.3 19.0 3.4 1.1 Purdue 37.3 11.4 1.7 0.5 Kentucky 7.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 Kent State 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valparaiso 88.8 75.4 34.0 24.7 UCLA 9.9 4.5 0.6 0.3 San Diego 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 New Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Creighton 60.6 13.6 2.4 1.1 Texas A&M 29.2 5.3 0.7 0.2 Texas Christian 10.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 Mississippi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dayton 62.1 49.0 9.1 4.7 Louisiana State 35.9 23.0 3.6 1.9 Oregon State 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 Belmont 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Louisiana-Monroe 55.7 19.4 2.0 0.8 Miami, Florida 23.2 4.9 0.2 0.1 Central Florida 15.7 2.9 0.1 0.0 Missouri State 5.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Stony Brook 77.2 49.0 13.5 8.0 Florida State 18.0 4.8 0.4 0.1 Mississippi State 4.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 Samford 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alabama-Birmingham 78.3 41.2 10.1 5.9 Stanford 14.4 3.6 0.3 0.1 Pepperdine 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 Michigan State 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 Fresno State 89.9 65.4 18.3 10.9 North Carolina 8.2 2.7 0.1 0.0 East Carolina 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 St. John's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cornell 74.9 28.6 4.4 2.2 Arizona 9.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 New Mexico State 12.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 Louisville 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Missouri
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2012 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |