Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation

ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament

Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.

Reg    Super  Final  Champ  Team

84.9   65.8   22.5   13.3   Oregon State
 7.5    2.4    0.2    0.1   Nevada-Las Vegas
 7.6    3.0    0.3    0.1   UC Irvine
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   North Dakota State

65.7   20.5    4.2    1.9   Oklahoma State
13.6    2.4    0.2    0.1   Nebraska
20.7    5.9    0.8    0.3   Cal State Fullerton
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Binghamton

68.7   42.7   12.0    6.1   Louisiana State
27.3   11.6    1.8    0.7   Houston
 2.6    0.3    0.0    0.0   Bryant
 1.3    0.1    0.0    0.0   Southeastern Louisiana

45.1   19.0    4.4    2.0   Rice
46.9   24.2    6.8    3.5   Texas
 8.0    2.1    0.2    0.1   Texas A&M
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   George Mason

80.0   63.4   20.9   11.4   Florida State
15.9    7.5    0.6    0.2   Alabama
 2.7    0.5    0.0    0.0   Kennesaw State
 1.4    0.2    0.0    0.0   Georgia Southern

57.4   19.0    2.5    1.0   Louisville
26.0    6.7    0.7    0.2   Kentucky
13.1    2.5    0.1    0.0   Kansas
 3.6    0.2    0.0    0.0   Kent State

70.8   40.9    9.1    4.4   Indiana
11.5    2.8    0.2    0.0   Indiana State
17.7    4.9    0.4    0.1   Stanford
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Youngstown State

65.6   36.0    9.4    4.5   Vanderbilt
27.7   13.8    2.5    1.1   Oregon
 6.6    1.7    0.1    0.0   Clemson
 0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0   Xavier

70.1   50.4   14.4    7.7   Florida
17.4    6.6    0.6    0.2   Long Beach State
 8.4    2.7    0.2    0.0   North Carolina
 4.2    0.8    0.0    0.0   College of Charleston

62.3   25.1    3.8    1.3   Miami, Florida
34.7   14.0    2.0    0.7   Texas Tech
 3.0    0.4    0.0    0.0   Columbia
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Bethune-Cookman

80.3   54.2   16.5    9.0   Texas Christian
11.5    3.9    0.4    0.1   Dallas Baptist
 8.1    2.6    0.3    0.1   Sam Houston State
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Siena

61.0   28.5    8.4    4.2   Cal Poly
21.0    5.9    0.9    0.4   Arizona State
17.3    4.9    0.9    0.3   Pepperdine
 0.7    0.0    0.0    0.0   Cal State Sacramento

73.0   46.8   13.5    7.1   Virginia
22.0    8.8    1.4    0.5   Arkansas
 4.9    1.3    0.1    0.0   Liberty
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Bucknell

72.0   38.3   10.0    5.0   South Carolina
15.4    3.1    0.2    0.0   Maryland
 9.2    1.5    0.1    0.0   Old Dominion
 3.3    0.3    0.0    0.0   Campbell

71.9   49.6   16.4    8.5   Louisiana-Lafayette
16.0    5.4    0.6    0.2   Mississippi State
12.2    4.4    0.7    0.2   San Diego State
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Jackson State

59.6   29.0    6.7    2.8   Mississippi
28.2    9.0    1.7    0.7   Washington
11.2    2.6    0.2    0.0   Georgia Tech
 1.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   Jacksonville State
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Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2014 NCAA Tournament About the author, Boyd Nation