| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2019 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2019 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 97.8 80.8 48.4 29.1 UCLA 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 Baylor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Loyola Marymount 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nebraska-Omaha 78.3 18.1 6.0 2.2 Oregon State 13.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Creighton 8.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Michigan 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cincinnati 68.3 47.8 10.2 3.7 Texas Tech 15.9 5.4 0.5 0.1 Dallas Baptist 15.8 5.9 0.5 0.1 Florida 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 81.8 37.5 6.6 2.1 Oklahoma State 9.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 8.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 Nebraska 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Harvard 79.0 52.6 8.4 2.9 Georgia 12.1 4.0 0.1 0.0 Florida Atlantic 8.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 Florida State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mercer 57.6 23.9 3.1 0.8 Louisiana State 33.5 15.3 1.6 0.4 Arizona State 8.9 2.1 0.0 0.0 Southern Mississippi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stony Brook 69.2 56.8 11.0 4.1 Arkansas 23.1 12.3 1.1 0.3 California 7.7 3.1 0.1 0.0 Texas Christian 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 65.5 21.8 1.9 0.4 Mississippi 18.8 3.9 0.1 0.0 Illinois 13.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 Clemson 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville State 96.5 89.3 53.6 35.2 Vanderbilt 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 Indiana State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 McNeese State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ohio State 46.5 4.2 0.4 0.1 West Virginia 48.5 5.2 1.1 0.4 Texas A&M 4.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Duke 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fordham 80.1 53.5 7.5 2.6 Louisville 14.2 4.8 0.1 0.0 Indiana 5.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 Illinois State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Illinois-Chicago 63.9 28.4 3.2 1.0 East Carolina 35.3 12.3 0.9 0.2 North Carolina State 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Campbell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Quinnipiac 62.4 38.8 3.8 1.0 Georgia Tech 27.0 11.2 0.6 0.1 Auburn 10.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 Coastal Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Florida A&M 60.7 31.8 2.2 0.6 North Carolina 33.9 14.3 1.3 0.3 Tennessee 5.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 Liberty 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 88.2 55.4 13.6 6.5 Mississippi State 10.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 Miami, Florida 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Michigan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southern 75.4 34.4 10.2 5.3 Stanford 18.2 5.8 0.9 0.3 UC Santa Barbara 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 Fresno State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sacramento State
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2019 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |