| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2021 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2021 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Obviously, this has not been a normal year, and that continues here. Neither I nor anyone else actually has any idea how good Rider, Fairfield, Nebraska, Maryland, or Michigan are. Those regionals in particular and, to a lesser degree, are unknown; I'm going with the numbers the way the ISR-based method spits them out, but don't trust them. By next weekend, we'll have more information in time for the supers.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 99.2 92.8 51.6 39.5 Arkansas 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Nebraska 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Northeastern 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Jersey Tech 39.8 2.1 0.2 0.1 Louisiana Tech 48.9 4.6 0.8 0.3 North Carolina State 10.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Alabama 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rider 63.5 39.5 8.0 4.2 Texas Tech 29.2 13.0 1.6 0.8 UCLA 7.3 2.2 0.1 0.0 North Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 70.6 36.5 5.4 2.9 Stanford 21.0 7.1 0.6 0.2 UC Irvine 7.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 Nevada 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Dakota State 83.8 66.8 17.1 9.9 Vanderbilt 11.3 4.0 0.1 0.0 Georgia Tech 4.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 Indiana State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Presbyterian 78.7 24.8 2.3 1.0 East Carolina 16.9 2.8 0.1 0.0 North Carolina-Charlotte 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Maryland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Norfolk State 57.2 42.6 7.0 3.9 Arizona 31.3 17.9 1.7 0.8 Oklahoma State 9.7 3.6 0.2 0.1 UC Santa Barbara 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Grand Canyon 51.5 20.6 1.8 0.8 Mississippi 20.9 4.9 0.2 0.1 Southern Mississippi 26.6 10.1 1.0 0.4 Florida State 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southeast Missouri State 71.1 48.0 13.9 4.8 Texas 11.6 4.0 0.5 0.1 Arizona State 17.4 7.4 1.6 0.5 Fairfield 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southern 59.8 27.8 7.3 2.7 Florida 35.3 12.4 2.4 0.6 Miami, Florida 3.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 South Alabama 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 South Florida 84.6 51.8 17.0 7.3 Mississippi State 8.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 Campbell 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Samford 83.5 43.9 13.6 5.4 Notre Dame 7.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 5.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Michigan 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 Central Michigan 56.1 36.8 9.7 3.4 Tennessee 31.7 14.3 2.4 0.6 Duke 6.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 Liberty 5.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 Wright State 60.4 30.0 7.3 2.5 Oregon 24.3 10.2 1.6 0.4 Gonzaga 15.3 5.8 0.8 0.2 Louisiana State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 64.5 49.3 13.4 4.5 Texas Christian 27.8 17.7 3.8 1.0 Oregon State 7.7 3.7 0.5 0.1 Dallas Baptist 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 McNeese State 45.9 15.5 1.9 0.4 Old Dominion 38.3 10.6 1.7 0.3 South Carolina 15.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 Virginia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2021 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |