| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2022 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2022 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Obviously, this has not been a normal year, and that continues here. Neither I nor anyone else actually has any idea how good Rider, Fairfield, Nebraska, Maryland, or Michigan are. Those regionals in particular and, to a lesser degree, are unknown; I'm going with the numbers the way the ISR-based method spits them out, but don't trust them. By next weekend, we'll have more information in time for the supers.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 88.6 80.4 46.3 29.3 Tennessee 7.2 3.8 0.7 0.2 Georgia Tech 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 Campbell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alabama State 40.4 5.4 1.0 0.3 Georgia Southern 34.9 5.3 1.1 0.4 Notre Dame 22.0 3.5 0.7 0.2 Texas Tech 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Greensboro 56.5 27.0 3.6 1.0 East Carolina 24.2 10.3 1.2 0.4 Virginia 19.3 7.0 0.9 0.2 Coastal Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Coppin State 66.0 42.8 8.6 3.2 Texas 15.0 4.9 0.3 0.1 Louisiana Tech 17.9 7.9 0.8 0.2 Dallas Baptist 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Air Force 55.7 34.4 6.4 2.6 Virginia Tech 41.2 19.1 2.6 0.9 Gonzaga 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Columbia 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wright State 59.1 30.8 7.2 3.3 Florida 28.4 11.9 1.7 0.5 Oklahoma 10.3 3.1 0.2 0.0 Liberty 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 Central Michigan 58.3 34.0 6.6 2.3 Texas A&M 29.6 12.3 1.7 0.5 Texas Christian 9.0 2.5 0.1 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 61.1 36.6 7.0 2.8 Louisville 29.5 11.9 1.2 0.4 Oregon 6.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 Michigan 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 Southeast Missouri State 74.9 61.8 22.2 12.9 Stanford 12.0 5.6 0.9 0.3 Texas State 13.1 5.6 1.0 0.3 UC Santa Barbara 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 42.6 11.8 1.7 0.5 Maryland 38.7 11.9 2.2 0.9 Wake Forest 18.7 3.3 0.3 0.1 Connecticut 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 LIU-Brooklyn 56.4 30.9 4.9 2.1 Oklahoma State 30.7 13.9 2.3 0.8 Arkansas 11.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 Grand Canyon 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Missouri State 74.4 43.3 8.7 3.9 North Carolina 23.5 8.6 0.9 0.3 Georgia 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hofstra 77.6 67.3 34.9 21.9 Oregon State 16.9 10.3 2.8 1.2 Vanderbilt 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.1 San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Mexico State 52.3 12.1 2.8 1.1 Auburn 22.4 4.3 0.8 0.3 UCLA 25.1 4.0 0.8 0.3 Florida State 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southeastern Louisiana 51.1 27.5 3.3 1.0 Miami, Florida 28.2 11.0 1.0 0.3 Arizona 20.7 5.9 0.4 0.1 Mississippi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Canisius 58.5 35.6 4.7 1.8 Southern Mississippi 37.0 19.1 2.8 1.0 Louisiana State 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 Kennesaw State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2022 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |