| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2023 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2023 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 82.7 64.4 23.0 13.1 Wake Forest 5.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 Maryland 11.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 Northeastern 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 George Mason 63.7 21.6 4.2 1.7 Alabama 24.1 5.7 0.7 0.2 Boston College 11.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 Troy 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nicholls State 76.2 57.2 15.1 6.6 Stanford 18.3 8.6 1.0 0.3 Texas A&M 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 Cal State Fullerton 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 San Jose State 59.0 21.7 2.9 1.0 Miami, Florida 33.4 9.7 1.2 0.3 Texas 7.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Maine 76.7 53.5 15.4 7.6 Clemson 21.6 9.6 1.6 0.6 Tennessee 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 North Carolina-Charlotte 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Lipscomb 67.7 28.6 6.1 2.3 Auburn 28.6 7.9 0.9 0.3 Southern Mississippi 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Samford 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pennsylvania 71.9 52.8 17.5 8.7 Louisiana State 27.0 12.7 2.5 0.9 Oregon State 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Sam Houston State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tulane 61.4 26.1 6.1 2.7 Kentucky 23.6 5.7 0.8 0.2 West Virginia 14.6 2.5 0.3 0.1 Indiana 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ball State 78.9 61.9 22.3 13.9 Florida 7.6 3.2 0.3 0.1 Connecticut 13.5 5.3 0.8 0.3 Texas Tech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Florida A&M 61.8 20.7 4.6 2.0 South Carolina 23.9 6.0 0.9 0.3 Campbell 14.3 2.8 0.3 0.1 North Carolina State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Connecticut State 62.0 41.3 7.9 3.4 Virginia 29.0 14.5 1.4 0.5 East Carolina 8.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 Oklahoma 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Army 47.8 20.9 2.1 0.7 Coastal Carolina 44.2 19.6 2.5 1.0 Duke 7.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rider 71.3 56.4 21.1 12.1 Arkansas 17.7 8.3 0.9 0.3 Texas Christian 7.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 Arizona 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 Santa Clara 53.4 19.5 2.9 1.0 Indiana State 17.6 4.4 0.4 0.1 Iowa 27.5 7.9 1.2 0.5 North Carolina 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Wright State 83.5 66.6 24.6 14.9 Vanderbilt 14.1 5.6 0.6 0.2 Oregon 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Xavier 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Illinois 52.8 16.1 3.0 1.3 Oklahoma State 27.4 7.4 1.2 0.5 Dallas Baptist 15.4 3.3 0.4 0.1 Washington 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2023 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |