| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 92.2 80.3 34.9 24.4 Tennessee 7.1 3.6 0.5 0.2 Southern Mississippi 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Indiana 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Northern Kentucky 54.3 8.3 1.4 0.6 East Carolina 42.4 7.5 1.0 0.4 Wake Forest 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Evansville 75.5 44.7 7.3 3.6 Florida State 16.1 5.5 0.3 0.1 Alabama 7.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 Central Florida 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stetson 50.5 25.2 2.8 1.1 Oklahoma 42.4 21.2 2.7 1.2 Duke 7.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oral Roberts 72.3 60.9 16.4 10.2 North Carolina 25.8 16.2 2.6 1.2 Louisiana State 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Wofford 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 LIU-Brooklyn 36.3 7.8 0.5 0.2 Arizona 49.9 12.9 1.7 0.7 Dallas Baptist 12.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 West Virginia 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Grand Canyon 87.0 64.6 21.6 13.1 Arkansas 9.9 2.5 0.1 0.0 Louisiana Tech 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Kansas State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southeast Missouri State 75.3 26.8 5.3 2.8 Virginia 21.7 5.4 0.7 0.3 Mississippi State 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 St. John's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pennsylvania 73.3 52.1 16.0 7.2 Kentucky 24.0 10.2 1.6 0.4 Indiana State 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 Illinois 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Michigan 67.7 30.5 7.9 2.6 Oregon State 29.9 6.6 0.7 0.2 UC Irvine 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nicholls State 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tulane 78.4 53.7 12.9 5.1 Georgia 7.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 North Carolina-Wilmington 14.1 4.6 0.3 0.1 Georgia Tech 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Army 61.6 25.7 3.3 0.8 North Carolina State 32.6 13.1 1.7 0.4 South Carolina 5.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 James Madison 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bryant 81.4 69.3 29.2 14.0 Texas A&M 5.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 13.0 6.0 0.9 0.2 Texas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grambling State 57.0 14.5 2.7 0.7 UC Santa Barbara 23.8 5.5 0.6 0.2 San Diego 19.0 2.7 0.3 0.1 Oregon 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fresno State 63.7 39.6 8.7 3.5 Clemson 27.7 14.2 3.0 1.2 Vanderbilt 8.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 Coastal Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 High Point 70.5 35.7 8.8 3.2 Oklahoma State 14.6 4.4 0.5 0.1 Nebraska 14.9 3.7 0.4 0.1 Florida 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Niagara
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2024 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |