| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2026 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2026 NCAA Tournament
Here are the annual ISR-based probabilities for this year's tournament thread. These incorporate my findings on the magnitude of the home field and experience advantages in the postseason. Obviously, there's no way to predict the location of the super-regionals at this point, so I'm assuming that the higher seed will host and assuming no advantage for equally-seeded non-#1 teams.
Reg Super Final Champ Team 99.9 87.4 39.6 25.9 UCLA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Virginia Tech 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cal Poly 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. Mary's 61.5 8.4 1.6 0.6 West Virginia 28.2 4.0 0.5 0.1 Wake Forest 10.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Kentucky 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton 81.6 53.1 11.9 5.4 Florida 15.7 5.2 0.3 0.1 Miami, Florida 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 Troy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rider 64.8 30.7 6.2 2.6 Southern Mississippi 17.4 5.3 0.4 0.1 Virginia 17.5 5.2 0.4 0.1 Jacksonville State 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Arkansas-Little Rock 84.9 60.8 14.1 7.1 Auburn 7.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 Central Florida 7.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 North Carolina State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 59.4 21.1 2.7 1.0 Nebraska 31.9 12.8 1.7 0.6 Mississippi 8.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 Arizona State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Dakota State 71.3 47.5 11.9 6.1 North Carolina 21.5 8.4 0.9 0.3 Tennessee 7.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 East Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Virginia Commonwealth 69.6 32.6 6.7 3.1 Texas A&M 25.7 9.0 0.9 0.3 Southern California 4.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 Texas State 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lamar 88.2 72.5 29.5 16.0 Georgia Tech 11.7 4.7 0.5 0.1 Oklahoma 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 The Citadel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Illinois-Chicago 45.3 9.5 1.4 0.4 Kansas 41.6 12.1 2.4 0.9 Arkansas 12.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 Missouri State 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Northeastern 63.3 41.7 6.0 1.9 Alabama 36.4 17.2 1.6 0.4 Oklahoma State 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Carolina-Upstate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alabama State 70.8 31.5 4.1 1.2 Florida State 28.2 9.5 0.6 0.1 Coastal Carolina 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Northern Illinois 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 St. John's 76.1 49.6 11.8 4.9 Georgia 7.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 Boston College 16.1 4.3 0.3 0.0 Liberty 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 LIU-Brooklyn 75.7 38.5 9.0 3.8 Mississippi State 15.7 3.9 0.3 0.1 Cincinnati 8.5 2.2 0.1 0.0 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lipscomb 90.1 70.1 26.1 14.5 Texas 8.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 UC Santa Barbara 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Tarleton State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holy Cross 47.8 12.5 2.4 0.8 Oregon 51.9 14.8 3.5 1.4 Oregon State 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Washington State 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Yale
| Boyd's World-> ISR-Based Probabilities for 2026 NCAA Tournament | About the author, Boyd Nation |